We are now one month into the 2011 baseball season and it has certainly been an exciting thirty days. Relievers are always one of the most important parts of a team--after all, you can't lose if the other team doesn't score.
Two teams whose bullpens drew much interest during the offseason were those of the Blue Jays and the Yankees. After one month of the season, here is an analysis of both 'pens.
YANKEES:
Hitting is usually the first thought to come into one's head when s/he thinks of the "Bronx Bombers". However, after the team's starting pitchers struggled to such a great extent last season, many people have been forced to look at the 27-time World Champs' backup--the men who many Yankees fans worried would be pitching much more often than would be preferable.
THE CLOSER:
Mariano Rivera
Through one month of the season, Rivera (1-0, 2.13) is pitching up to normal standards...or so it would seem. The 41-year old right-hander is nine for eleven is save opportunities. Rivera blew just two saves all year in 2009 and one in 2008. Last season, he blew five. Some may argue that, over his career, the 568/619 pitcher did not have a below-average season (he blew a career high seven saves in 2001). In fact, Rivera averages just 3.64 blown saves per season, not including this season, 1995 (when he was a starter), or 1996 (when he had just five save opportunities). Even though he has saved nine games already, the major question is whether or not fans should worry about his failure 18.18% of the time. Despite the fact that, right now, he is averaging a 12 BSV season, Yankees fans should not be concerned--at least not this year. Rivera will, likely, settle down and pitch fairly well for the remainder of the season. Next year, there is more need for concern (a 42-year old is always unpredictable).
BEST PITCHER:
David Robertson
Robertson's past shows that he may eventually falter; however, he is the strongest pitcher out of the Yankees bullpen so far this year. He has gone 1-0 with the miniscule ERA of 1.93 over 9 1/3 innings. His twelve K's are impressive for a man who pitches one or fewer innings per game. He does, however, have one stat category which will come back to bite him if he does not improve in the area. His WHIP is 1.39. Though not terrible, no pitcher wants to give up as many baserunners as he has. A player cannot score from the bench, but there are hundreds of ways to bring him home if he is on the basepaths.
MOST VALUABLE RIGHT HANDER:
Mariano Rivera
Rivera can still save games--but his most valuable trait is the ability to strike fear into opponents. No matter how well he is pitching, the batter will always lose confidence--("I'm facing the best closer in the league, maybe ever. I'm not going to get a hit.") And confidence most certainly has an effect on a player's ability to perform.
MOST VALUABLE LEFT HANDER:
Boone Logan
This is sort of by default seeing as Logan is the only lefty in the Yanks' bullpen. However, he showed last year that he has the potential to be a solid pitcher (his previous seasons aside [5.78 ERA over 127.2 innings]). He is strong against lefties and, therefore, fills the position the Yankees need. In other words, he does exactly what he is asked to do and, so, he is valuable to his team.
GREATEST DISAPPOINTMENT:
Rafael Soriano
This is the easiest title to hand out. Signed to be a star set-up man who could potentially fill in at closer in Mariano Rivera faltered, Soriano has been the falterer. He is 1-1 with a 7.15 ERA and a WHIP of 1.85 over 11 1/3 innings pitched. People are beginning to understand why he could not find a team to sign him to be their closer during the offseason. His career 2.86 ERA is the only hope the Yankees have that this deal will not be a complete bust.
BLUE JAYS:
After a pathetic 2010 season, the Jays acquired three proven closers to help out in the back end. So far, the bullpen has been solid--some of the production coming from the least expected sources. The Jays may not be quite there yet, but it is starting to look more and more promising.
THE CLOSER(s):
Jon Rauch & Frank Francisco
Jon Rauch emerged as the closer early in the year. At this time, however, Frank Francisco and Octavio Dotel were both on the DL. He has remained solid throughout the month, getting the save in all five of his opportunities. He also has a 2.45 ERA. When Frank Francisco returned, he showed that the Blue Jays have more than one closer. After giving up a first pitch home run to his first batter of the year, Francisco has kept opponents to only one hit since. Through 5 1/3 innings, he has an ERA of 1.69.
BEST PITCHER:
Casey Janssen
How can a pitcher who was sent down in the middle of the month, only to be recalled as an injury replacement, be the team's best reliever. Let the numbers speak for themselves: 0.87 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6K's, .237 Opponent's Avg., 10 1/3 innings pitched. Once a starter, Janssen has translated well into a strong reliever. It is fairly safe to say that, if he can keep this up, he will not be sent down again. (One must remember that he was only placed in Triple-A because he had options left.)
MOST VALUABLE RIGHT HANDER:
Carlos Villanueva
Acquired for cash early in the offseason, nobody expected Villanueva to make the team. When multiple pitchers began the year injured, many assumed that he and Casey Janssen would be the first players sent down. In 14 2/3 innings, Villanueva has posted a 1.84 ERA and has given up runs in only two of his 8 appearances. His WHIP is 0.82 and his opponent's average is .093. Villanueva, being a former starter, can go multiple innings and is, by far, the most valuable pitcher on the staff. He finishes a close second to Janssen for Best Pitcher. If not for his outing against Tampa Bay on April 23rd, the title would have been his.
MOST VALUABLE LEFT HANDER:
Marc Rzepczynski
Like with the Yankees, this choice is by default. However, also like Boone Logan, Rzepczynski deserves praise. He is the most versatile pitcher in the 'pen. Sometimes used as a lefty specialist, sometimes used as a long-relief man, Rzepczynski has made the translation from the rotation to the bullpen with ease. In 12 2/3 innings, he is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and an opponents' average of .103. Even if there was another southpaw in the bullpen, Rzepczynski would likely still be the best left hander.
GREATEST DISAPPOINTMENT:
Octavio Dotel
His opponents' average of .179 and 9 K's make one wonder how Octavio Dotel could possibly be the greatest disappointment out of the 'pen. The answer: a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. In other words, the Blue Jays have a very strong bullpen. No one is very close to Dotel for this title. And Octavio has shown some promise to Jays fans this year (he went 1-2-3 in his first outing). Also, one must remember that he was injured at the start of the year. His career numbers: 3.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, Opponents' Avg. .218. Dotel has never been the best pitcher, but Blue Jays fans can count on his improvement later this year--even if that improvement is small.
So who wins the battle of the bullpens? Right now, the Jays are a mile ahead, but one must remember that the season is young and the Yankees always battle back. This competition is far from over. It will be interesting to see who is winning after next month.
Showing posts with label Marc Rzepczynski. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marc Rzepczynski. Show all posts
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Monday, February 14, 2011
Blue Jays Pitching Rotation Analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays have had a busy offseason when it comes to pitching. From the early December trade of Shaun Marcum to the acquisition of Frank Francisco, the Jays have certainly concentrated on pitching in the last few months.
The first thing I want to concentrate on is the rotation: How will it look next season? How will it perform? Here it goes:
Ricky Romero: The Jays' top pick in the 2006 MLB amateur draft (sixth overall) will likely be asked to fill the vacancy left by 2010 Opening Day starter Shaun Marcum. The new #1 went 14-9 last season with a 3.73 ERA in 32 Starts. While Romero only improved his victories by one in his sophomore season, his ERA dropped substantially. He is far from a number one pitcher, but still has the potential to improve. The wins will come with better run support. Romero's most significant fault is his inability to recover his confidence if he pitches a poor inning. He will often slow to a snail's pace if there are runners on base. In other words, he chooses to throw off his own timing. If Romero ever wants to be a star in this league--which I believe that he could one day be--he has to learn to forget about the last pitch and concentrate on the next one.
Brandon Morrow: The Blue Jays were the clear winner of the Brandon-for-Brandon deal which took place last offseason. Morrow learned to trade power for control last year. This adjustment to his game--thank you Bruce Walton and Jose Molina--left him the most dominant pitcher on the Jays last season. After early season struggles, he and Molina became permanent partners. Morrow finished the 2010 season--which had begun with speculation about his impending demotion to Triple-A Las Vegas--with a 10-7 record and a 4.49 ERA. The ERA almost certainly would have been lower had he been able to pitch at the beginning of the season as he did at the end. This is a good sign for Blue Jays fans. Also, one mustn't forget Morrow's 17K one-hitter. This was arguably the best-pitched game of the year (and remember that six no-hitters, including two no-hitters must be taken into account). Morrow has the stuff to be the Jays' ace in days to come--so long as he does not revert to his old ways and become AJ Burnett #2.
Brett Cecil: The third, and final, lock for the Jays' rotation next year had more wins than any other pitcher on the Blue Jays last season with 15. The Jays' top pitching-prospect in 2008 and 2009 showed why he was so highly regarded last season after an early call-up to replace the injured Brian Tallet. Cecil's 4.22 ERA is a terrible representation of the season he had last year. If he could learn to pitch better against Texas and Boston (a similar problem to that of Ricky Romero) then he could be an All-Star in the near future. There are only two worries I have about Cecil. 1: Will he be able to pitch a full season in the majors (something he has yet to be given the opportunity to do)? And 2: Will he be able to come to his senses and shave off that atrocious mohawk?
Questions folllow for Toronto as to who will fill out the rotation. The leading candidates seem to be:
Kyle Drabek: The son of former MLB pitcher Doug Drabek, Kyle is by far the Jays' top prospect. Drabek received three "try-out" games with the team at the end of last season. I think I speak for many Jays' fans as I express my disappointment in his performances--not that I don't retain high expectations for the future. Drabek, who was made out for the entire year as a future super-star was grossly average (0-3, 4.76 ERA). I liked what I saw from Drabek in the early innings of his games, but it seemed that, once hitters figured him out, he was much less effective. Personally, I do not believe that Kyle is ready for the majors. However, it seems highly likely that he be in the number 4 slot next year,
Jesse Litsch: Litsch once showed some potential, however, injuries have limited his appearances in recent years. When Litsch did pitch last year, he was ineffective (save for one start), and soon found himself back on the disabled list. I don't trust him to be successful in the rotation next year. Litsch's 1-5, 5.79 ERA in 9 starts last season has left him a huge question mark for 2011. Jesse Litsch, if he could return to 2008 form, would be a welcome addition to what would be a solid pitching rotation. However, he is simply too unpredictable for any fan to have even the slightest trace of confidence in him.
Marc Rzepczynski: If you have never heard of Rzepczynski (pronounced Zep-chin-ski) you probably think that he is just a modern version of Sidd Fitch. That no one could possibly have a name this crazy and, thus, he must be fake (so I'm about to tell you about his impossible super-abilities). No, Zepper is most certainly real and, in my opinion, is the best choice for number five in the rotation. Rzepczynski would make an effective long-reliever (which I will touch upon in my upcoming Blue Jays bullpen analysis), but he would be better in the starting rotation. Unlike Jesse Litsch, he has actually pitched consistently over the past two seasons. The major worry concerning him, like Brett Cecil, is his ability to pitch a full major league season. This is a risk that I think the Blue Jays should most certainly take. When Rzepczynski is on his game, he is practically unhittable. He may have the more confidence on the mound than any of the Jays' other Starter options. Starting Rzepczynski in the rotation would make the most sense for the Blue Jays as, if he falters, he can easily be shifted into a long relief role.
Brad Mills's inconsistencies will likely prevent him from obtaining a Major League roster spot. Scott Richmond will have to climb a long way back from his injury to come within spitting distance of the competition in front of him (though he could also take on a reliever's spot). And Dustin McGowan may as well be forgotten about at this point. If, and only if, he ever pitches again, it likely will not be as a Blue Jay as proving himself as better than anyone else mentioned in this article (including Mr. Fitch) would be near-impossible.
Keep checking back. I will soon post my Blue Jays Bullpen Analysis.
Until next time, I must bid you,
Adieu
The first thing I want to concentrate on is the rotation: How will it look next season? How will it perform? Here it goes:
Ricky Romero: The Jays' top pick in the 2006 MLB amateur draft (sixth overall) will likely be asked to fill the vacancy left by 2010 Opening Day starter Shaun Marcum. The new #1 went 14-9 last season with a 3.73 ERA in 32 Starts. While Romero only improved his victories by one in his sophomore season, his ERA dropped substantially. He is far from a number one pitcher, but still has the potential to improve. The wins will come with better run support. Romero's most significant fault is his inability to recover his confidence if he pitches a poor inning. He will often slow to a snail's pace if there are runners on base. In other words, he chooses to throw off his own timing. If Romero ever wants to be a star in this league--which I believe that he could one day be--he has to learn to forget about the last pitch and concentrate on the next one.
Brandon Morrow: The Blue Jays were the clear winner of the Brandon-for-Brandon deal which took place last offseason. Morrow learned to trade power for control last year. This adjustment to his game--thank you Bruce Walton and Jose Molina--left him the most dominant pitcher on the Jays last season. After early season struggles, he and Molina became permanent partners. Morrow finished the 2010 season--which had begun with speculation about his impending demotion to Triple-A Las Vegas--with a 10-7 record and a 4.49 ERA. The ERA almost certainly would have been lower had he been able to pitch at the beginning of the season as he did at the end. This is a good sign for Blue Jays fans. Also, one mustn't forget Morrow's 17K one-hitter. This was arguably the best-pitched game of the year (and remember that six no-hitters, including two no-hitters must be taken into account). Morrow has the stuff to be the Jays' ace in days to come--so long as he does not revert to his old ways and become AJ Burnett #2.
Brett Cecil: The third, and final, lock for the Jays' rotation next year had more wins than any other pitcher on the Blue Jays last season with 15. The Jays' top pitching-prospect in 2008 and 2009 showed why he was so highly regarded last season after an early call-up to replace the injured Brian Tallet. Cecil's 4.22 ERA is a terrible representation of the season he had last year. If he could learn to pitch better against Texas and Boston (a similar problem to that of Ricky Romero) then he could be an All-Star in the near future. There are only two worries I have about Cecil. 1: Will he be able to pitch a full season in the majors (something he has yet to be given the opportunity to do)? And 2: Will he be able to come to his senses and shave off that atrocious mohawk?
Questions folllow for Toronto as to who will fill out the rotation. The leading candidates seem to be:
Kyle Drabek: The son of former MLB pitcher Doug Drabek, Kyle is by far the Jays' top prospect. Drabek received three "try-out" games with the team at the end of last season. I think I speak for many Jays' fans as I express my disappointment in his performances--not that I don't retain high expectations for the future. Drabek, who was made out for the entire year as a future super-star was grossly average (0-3, 4.76 ERA). I liked what I saw from Drabek in the early innings of his games, but it seemed that, once hitters figured him out, he was much less effective. Personally, I do not believe that Kyle is ready for the majors. However, it seems highly likely that he be in the number 4 slot next year,
Jesse Litsch: Litsch once showed some potential, however, injuries have limited his appearances in recent years. When Litsch did pitch last year, he was ineffective (save for one start), and soon found himself back on the disabled list. I don't trust him to be successful in the rotation next year. Litsch's 1-5, 5.79 ERA in 9 starts last season has left him a huge question mark for 2011. Jesse Litsch, if he could return to 2008 form, would be a welcome addition to what would be a solid pitching rotation. However, he is simply too unpredictable for any fan to have even the slightest trace of confidence in him.
Marc Rzepczynski: If you have never heard of Rzepczynski (pronounced Zep-chin-ski) you probably think that he is just a modern version of Sidd Fitch. That no one could possibly have a name this crazy and, thus, he must be fake (so I'm about to tell you about his impossible super-abilities). No, Zepper is most certainly real and, in my opinion, is the best choice for number five in the rotation. Rzepczynski would make an effective long-reliever (which I will touch upon in my upcoming Blue Jays bullpen analysis), but he would be better in the starting rotation. Unlike Jesse Litsch, he has actually pitched consistently over the past two seasons. The major worry concerning him, like Brett Cecil, is his ability to pitch a full major league season. This is a risk that I think the Blue Jays should most certainly take. When Rzepczynski is on his game, he is practically unhittable. He may have the more confidence on the mound than any of the Jays' other Starter options. Starting Rzepczynski in the rotation would make the most sense for the Blue Jays as, if he falters, he can easily be shifted into a long relief role.
Brad Mills's inconsistencies will likely prevent him from obtaining a Major League roster spot. Scott Richmond will have to climb a long way back from his injury to come within spitting distance of the competition in front of him (though he could also take on a reliever's spot). And Dustin McGowan may as well be forgotten about at this point. If, and only if, he ever pitches again, it likely will not be as a Blue Jay as proving himself as better than anyone else mentioned in this article (including Mr. Fitch) would be near-impossible.
Keep checking back. I will soon post my Blue Jays Bullpen Analysis.
Until next time, I must bid you,
Adieu
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