Toronto Blue Jays: The Bullpen 2012

Yesterday I posted about the Toronto Blue Jays starting rotation, today we look to the other end of the pitching spectrum: the bullpen.

Shall we look at the opening day bullpen from last season? (2011 stats with the Blue Jays in brackets [note that final stat is saves/opportunities])

Shawn Camp (67G, 6-3, 4.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 1/4)

Jason Frasor (44G, 2-1, 2.98 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 0/2)

Casey Janssen (55G, 6-0, 2.26 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2/4)

David Purcey (5G, 0-0 11.57 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 0/0)

Jon Rauch (53G, 5-4, 4.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11/16)

Marc Rzepczynski (43G, 2-3, 2.97 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 0/3)

Carlos Villanueva (33G [13 starts], 6-4, 4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 0/1)

One must also remember that Octavio Dotel (36G, 2-1, 3.68 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 1/1) and Frank Francisco (54G, 1-4, 3.55 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 17/21) both started the season on the disabled list.  Of these nine pitchers, only Frason, Janssen, and Villanueva remain on the team (Frasor after a brief stint with the White Sox).

Villanueva was by far the best pitcher out of the bullpen over the first two months of the season, which won him a role as a starter before an injury sent him back to the 'pen.  Over 13 relief appearances from April 1 to May 18, he posted a 1.48 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP.  While his pitching in the rotation was not quite as stellar, he had a confidence on the mound that few of the other pitchers had.  He will have a chance to compete for a spot in the rotation next year, but it is more probable that he will end up in the bullpen as a long man/middle innings eater.

Jason Frasor, who was traded along with Zach Stewart to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Edwin Jackson mid-season, was reacquired on Sunday for two minor league pitchers.  Frasor holds the Blue Jays franchise record for most appearances by a pitcher (career) and he will get a chance to add to this total in 2012.  As a solid back-end reliever, who can step in as a temporary closer if need be, he is one of four players assured a spot in the bullpen next season.

Casey Janssen, perhaps the biggest surprise of the 2011 campaign, is another lock for next year.  The injuries to Dotel and Francisco were the only reasons why he even made the team last year, and he made the most of his opportunity.  In spite of being sent down early in the year (more because the team could than that they wanted to) he did not falter and showed no signs of anger or disappointment upon his recall a few days later.  It was not a particularly close competition in which Janssen proved that he was the best reliever on the team last year.  He won the Blue Jays Most Improved Player Award at the end of the season.

The remainder of the pitchers competing for roles next season started 2011 somewhere else.  To begin, the other two certain locks for next year.

Although he has not yet officially been signed, Darren Oliver will be part of the Jays organization as soon as he passes his physical.  The 41-year old southpaw posted a 2.29 ERA last season (2.08 against lefties and 2.45 against righties).  He slots in as the best left-hander on the team and, as a result, the certain lefty-specialist.  He was 2/6 in save opportunities and put up a 1.14 WHIP.  So far, he is the Jays' biggest free agent signing.  Oliver is one of those pitchers who seems to get better with age.  His last four seasons have been the best of his career.  Look for him to pitch primarily against lefties, but he may spot Janssen or Frasor in the seventh or eighth from time to time.

And then there is Sergio Santos, the closer who GM Alex Anthopolous plucked from the White Sox in exchange for well-regarded pitching prospect Nestor Molina.  Santos is under team control for six years and gives the Blue Jays the closer they have sought after since BJ Ryan's last good season in 2008.  Santos picked up 30 saves in 36 opportunities and posted a 3.55 ERA and 1.11 WHIP last season.  His most significant statistics were his .181 batting average against and his 92 strikeouts in 63.1 innings.  With Frasor, Janssen, and (sometimes) Oliver, the Jays have the seventh, eighth, and ninth settled for next year.

This only leaves three (maybe four) spots left in the bullpen.  Who is competing for these roles?  Chad Beck, Joel Carreno, Danny Farquhar Jim Hoey, Aaron Laffey, Jesse Litsch, Trystan Magnuson, Luis Perez, Carlos Villanueva, and even Garrett Mock are possibilities.

Beck, Carreno, Laffey, Litsch, Perez, and Villanueva have all been starters in the past.  All of them, save for Beck, will likely be given a chance to make the rotation next season, although Villanueva seems to be the only one with a legitimate shot at this position.

Chad Beck was called up in September last year after going 9-8 with a 4.50 ERA over three minor league levels.  The PCL was not good to him, but is it really good for any pitcher?  He started 23 of his 31 games with all of his relief appearances coming in double-A.  After the season's completion he pitched for the Phoenix Desert Dogs of the Arizona Fall League, appearing in five games and surrendering no runs on two hits and a walk.  Beck has an outside shot at making the team, an opportunity which is helped by his solid performances in the 2.1 innings he pitched for the Jays at the end of 2011.

Joel Carreno was unbelievable in his 15.2 innings in August and September with the Blue Jays.  He surrendered only two runs on eleven hits and four walks.  He also struck out 14 batters.  These numbers were an improvement on his minor league stats as a starter: 7-9, 3.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP.  Carreno was used well by John Farrell and, in the words of MLB.com writer Gregor Chisholm, he "became a favourite" of the manager.  His stellar performance gives him an advantage going in to spring training, but if he can only find a spot as a middle-reliever, the Jays may prefer that he start in the minors.

Danny Farquhar was traded for Rajai Davis prior to the 2011 season before being reacquired in exchange for David Pursey.  The submariner was terrible in his first Major League performance (he surrendered 4 runs--3 earned--over 0.2 of an inning).  He settled down and was solid in his next two appearances.  Farquhar is the type of pitcher suited for the later innings.  He was a closer in triple-A and it is probable that--with the Jays' back-end being fairly solid--this is the position he will take at the beginning of the 2012 season.

Jim Hoey was claimed off waivers from the Minnesota Twins last month.  The hard-throwing reliever has not been impressive at the Major League level and was acquired more likely for his potential than for 2012.  It is highly improbable that he will make the team out of Spring Training, but he may be called up in the case of an injury.

Aaron Laffey wants to be a starter--that is why he signed with Toronto--but this may not be the most likely place for him.  He will compete with Jesse Litsch, Luis Perez, and Carlos Villanueva for a long-relief job, but as the Jays have the ability to send him to the minors without repercussion, they may choose to do so.  Villanueva is assured a spot on the team in one position or another, so it is going to be difficult for Laffey to find a spot--especially because Alex Anthopolous has first-hand experience with Litsch and Perez that he does not have with Laffey.

Litsch has been up and down throughout his Major League career, but he was very good out of the bullpen at the end of last season.  His chances of ever being a starter again are slim, but he seems to have found his niche in the 'pen.  He finished off 2012 6-3 with a 4.44 ERA, but it is important to note that his ERA did go down after he became a reliever.  Although he had a few bad games near the end of the year, he was one of the more consistent pitchers out of the bullpen in August and September.  He has a good shot at making the team, particularly if Villanueva makes it as a starter, leaving the team without a long-man.

Trystan Magnuson was traded along with Farquhar for Rajai Davis prior to 2011, but was reacquired after the season's completion in exchange for cash.  The 26-year old Canadian was not very good for the Athletics, posting a 6.14 ERA over 9 appearances.  He was solid in the minors, however, putting up a 2.98 ERA over 45.1 innings in the always-difficult PCL.  He will have to prove himself in Spring Training, but he may be able to make the team.  He is more likely to start in triple-A, but his minor league numbers were too good last year for him to stay down there for long.

Luis Perez had an up and down year.  He was not spectacular as a starter and his relief numbers were average.  It seemed as if his statistics were better than his abilities last season, and it was not until a late-season breakdown that his ERA rose to 5.12 and his WHIP to 1.55.  The team seemed to like him at the beginning of the year and forgot about him at the end.  Being a lefty, he has a good shot at making the team, but he has Aaron Laffey with whom he must now contend.  This should create healthy competition for one of the final bullpen spots.  The fact that he can double as a long-man would help his case more if Laffey, Litsch, and Villanueva were not already vying for the same position as he.

Garrett Mock would need to rely on either substantial numbers of injuries to other relievers or a miraculous Spring Training in order to make the team.  Over 55 Major League games, 19 starts, he has an ERA of 5.17 and a record of 4-13.  Mock did not pitch in the Majors last season and did not make the most of his opportunity in the minors.  In 49.1 innings over four levels of the minors, he put up an ERA of 6.39 with a 1.62 WHIP and a 1-5 record.  Mock is a non-roster invitee and is likely to remain off the roster.

An interesting question will be whether or not the Blue Jays intend on carrying seven or eight relief pitchers in 2012.  With Mock, Farquhar, Magnuson, and Beck as unlikely candidates to make the team, it looks like Carreno, Laffey, Litsch, Perez, and Villanueva will be competing for those last three or four spots.  Of course, if Villanueva does the improbable and makes the rotation next year, one of Dustin McGowan or Brett Cecil could also enter the mix.  Perez and Laffey have the advantage of being lefties, so one of them is likely to make the team.  After that Carreno and Litsch will have to compete for the final spot--unless Anthopolous chooses to go with an eight man 'pen.

The probable bullpen of 2012 if only seven players are taken:

Closer: Sergio Santos

Eighth Inning: Casey Janssen

Seventh Inning: Jason Frasor

Lefty-Specialist (seventh inning fill in): Darren Oliver

Long Reliever: Carlos Villanueva

Middle Reliever: Luis Perez

Middle Reliever: Jesse Litsch

This leaves Laffey and Carreno in the minors.  Carreno has proven that he is Major League ready, but it is better for his development if he starts in the minors than if he throws one inning every fourth day--often when down two or three runs.

Expect to see Aaron Laffey, Joel Carreno, Danny Farquhar, and Trystan Magnuson in the big leagues at some point during the season--it is just not likely that that is where they will start.  Remember to always expect the unexpected.  Anyone could be the next Casey Janssen.

Toronto Blue Jays: The Rotation 2012

Shall we take a look back at what the opening day rotation for the Toronto Blue Jays was last season? (2011 stats in brackets; the number to the left of the player's name indicates number of games pitched [note that only statistics as a Blue Jay are shown here])

32 Ricky Romero (15-11, 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
18 (14 starts) Kyle Drabek (4-5, 6.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP)
20 Brett Cecil (4-11, 4.73 ERA, 1.33 WHIP)
20 Jo-Jo Reyes (5-8, 5.40 ERA, 1.59 WHIP)
28 (8 starts) Jesse Litsch (6-3, 4.44 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)

Where are they now?

Romero was, by far, the best pitcher on the team last season.  His spectacular numbers earned him an All-Star selection and a Pitcher of the Month Award.  Romero proved his critics wrong and put up the type of season that was expected of him when he was chosen 6th overall in the 2005 amateur entry draft.  He has shown that he has the stuff to be a legitimate ace in the MLB and has solidified a spot in the Jays' rotation for next season.  Barring a blockbuster deal (and with Alex Anthopolous at the helm, this is always a possibility) Ricky will be the Opening Day starter.

Drabek has received mixed opinions.  Some believe that he still has the potential to be a solid big-league pitcher while others see him as a complete bust.  I find myself leaning toward the former, but the supposed top prospect in the Roy Halladay deal has a long way to go before he is ready to be an effective Major Leaguer.  Expect him to start the season in Triple-A and expect a high ERA--not that that's a particularly meaningful statistic in the Pacific Coast League.  Hopefully injuries will not force him to the majors too early and he will be a September call up--assuming he does not over-perform with the 51s.  Drabek needs to work on controlling his emotions, though, before he can go anywhere.

Brett Cecil was one of the biggest disappointments of the season.  After an unexpectedly good 2010 campaign that saw the 38th overall pick in the 2007 draft pick up 15 wins in 28 starts, Cecil dropped off the map in 2011.  A poor start had him packing his bags and heading to the minors before a late-season recall.  Where his velocity had dipped early he started to recover--although he could not equal his abilities of the past.  Cecil certainly showed promise during his second stint with the Jays in 2011 but struggled in the later innings.  He was often solid throughout the game, but when the seventh inning rolled along, he lost all ability to finish.  This could be attributed to fatigue.  An earlier start on next season and a bit of work on velocity and Cecil could make the team out of spring-training.  He may have to fight it out for the last spot in the rotation, but unless the Jays pick up another starter, it is probable that he will make the team.

Jo-Jo Reyes was picked up at the end of the 2010 season along with Yunel Escobar in exchange for Alex Gonzalez, Tim Collins, and Tyler Pastornicky.  Escobar has kept Jays fans generally happy with the deal, but Jo-Jo turned out to be a complete waste of time.  After tying the Major League record for most consecutive starts without a win (28), he picked up his first victory of the season on May 30.  A few solid starts later, he returned to early season form and was designated for assignment on July 23.  He was picked up by the Orioles, who let him go at the end of the season.  Now a free-agent, Reyes will likely be anywhere but Toronto next season.

Jesse Litsch endured injury and demotion before finally finding a permanent role in the bullpen.  He put up a 4.66 ERA as a starter, going 4-3, but he performed much better out of the 'pen (2-0, 4.08 ERA).  He was a solid and trust-worthy long man who looks like he will be a good contributor to the team next season--in the 'pen once again.  He will have to fight for a job (With Sergio Santos, Casey Janssen, Darren Oliver, and Jason Frasor as locks, he will have to battle it out with Luis Perez, Aaron Laffey, Danny Farquhar, Chad Beck, Joel Carreno, Trystan Magnuson, and possibly Carlos Villanueva for the final 3 or 4 spots).  This means, of course, that he will not be in the rotation unless severe injuries force the hand of Jays management.

An early season injury kept Brandon Morrow out of the rotation until April 23.  Morrow, who had a promising 2010 season (who can forget the 17 K one-hitter against the Rays?) had an up and down year in 2011.  He posted an 11-11 record with a 4.72 ERA in 30 starts.  There were many tense moments during Morrow's season and for the longest time he pitched like he had done at the beginning of the 2010 season (for those who do not know, this is not a good thing).  At the end of the year, however, he found his ability again.  While it was still impossible to predict which Morrow would show up for the game, the good one was almost unhittable.  His September 18 and 23 starts against the Yankees and Rays that showed off his best stuff.  Over the two games, he pitched 15 innings giving up 0 runs on 6 hits.  His 4 walks against Tampa Bay were not encouraging, but he only surrendered one against New York.  Morrow needs to find consistency, but he is assured a spot in the rotation next year--right now, directly behind Ricky Romero.

One of the most interesting pitchers for the Jays last season was Henderson Alvarez.  The 21-year old righty was called up in early August, all that most Jays fans expected was that he would throw hard.  In that respect, he disappointed a little--not to say that he did not throw hard, he was just a little over-hyped in that category.  He did not disappoint in any other area.  Over 10 starts, the rookie put up a 1-3 record with a 3.53 ERA.  Early in September, his ERA was below 3.00, rather near to Ricky Romero's.  While Jays management would deny it, Alvarez seems to be a lock for the rotation next year.  It is my opinion that he is the most valuable starter currently on the Blue Jays roster--no disrespect to Romero.  Of all the players on the team, he is one of two who I would not trade (the other being Jose Bautista).  He has the stuff to be a legitimate number one pitcher in the near future.  Note that he picked up 40 Ks and posted a 1.13 WHIP, as well.

One of the biggest surprises of the 2011 season was the return of Dustin McGowan, who had last pitched in 2008.  Although he finished with an 0-2 record with a 6.43 ERA, he showed that he could still pitch effectively at the big-league level.  Over 21.0 innings, he struck out 20 batters and held opponents to a .247 batting average against.  He is not assured a spot in the rotation, but the Jays do not have the luxury to send him to the minors and doctors recommend that he remain a starter (maintain a consistent schedule so that he does not injure himself again).  Right now, McGowan seems the most likely 5th starter, but he will certainly have to compete in spring training to win that title.

The remainder of the possible starters for 2011 who are currently on the team all spent time a relievers for much of last season.

Carlos Villanueva was stellar out of the bullpen at the beginning of the season.  Over 13 relief appearances from the start of the year until May 18, he posted a 1.48 ERA and picked up a win.  He also posted a 0.82 WHIP with an opponents average against of .132.  After taking over as a starter, his numbers dipped a bit.  He finished the season 6-4, 4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 33 appearances (13 starts).  He also missed most of August with an injury.  Villanueva was a reliable pitcher in 2011 (pretty good for a guy picked up in exchange for cash) and will certainly have a job in 2012.  If he wants it to be as a starter, he's going to have to work hard in spring training.

Luis Perez is a left-hander, which is to his advantage, and he pitched well in his first appearance as a starter last year after being a reliever for much of it.  He was always inconsistent, however, finishing the season with a 5.12 ERA over 37 appearances (4 starts).  He had some issues with the long ball, giving up 9 home runs on the season, and was especially poor in September.  Perez's first concern should be making the team at all, let alone as a starter.

Aaron Laffey: A recent free agent signing, Laffey has not proven himself to be a particularly good starter in the past.  He had his best season last year (3-2, 3.88 ERA), the first of his five Major League seasons in which he did not start a single game.  Laffey felt that Toronto was the place where he had the best chance at cracking the rotation, but he also signed a split contract--meaning that it is likely that Alex Anthopolous has much smaller plans for him (with Brad Mills gone to Los Angeles, the 51s need a new number one).  Like with Perez, making the team should be his primary intention.  His best hope at the starting rotation is an injury to Brett Cecil or Ricky Romero (seeing as the team would likely want to replace a southpaw with a southpaw).

Joel Carreno seems to be the final internal option who has seen big league time.  Over 15.2 innings as a reliever last season, he posted a 1.15 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.  He was one of the most consistently good pitchers on the team over the last two months.  He has certainly earned an opportunity at the rotation, but numbers like that make him an excellent trade candidate or, possibly, a future closer.  Carreno is often forgotten in talks of the rotation as many people forget that he was a starter in the minors.  With Double-A New Hampshire last season he went 7-9 with a 3.41 ERA in 24 games (23 starts).  Carreno may or may not make the team next season, but if he does, he is a viable option as a back-end starter.

All of those above have Major League experience.  The Jays, however, are famous for their highly regarded minor league system.  With Nestor Molina gone to Chicago, the Jays are left with four top pitching prospects, three of who may be ready by some point next year. 

Deck McGuire, the Jays' 2010 first-rounder, put up a 9-5 record and a 3.02 ERA in Single-A Dunedin and Double-A New Hampshire last year and may be ready as a September call up if not earlier.  He is 22-years old.  Chad Jenkins, now 24, went 9-12 with a 3.70 ERA over the same two levels as McGuire last year.  While these numbers are not quite as good as McGuire's, he is seen as a good-potential player, and his age may mean that he is mature enough to handle the Majors.  The final Major League ready prospect is Drew Hutchison.  Over 28 starts with Lansing, Dunedin, and New Hampshire, he put up a 2.53 ERA to go along with a 14-5 record.  He also struck out 171 batters in 149.1 innings.  The 21-year old was chosen in the 15th round of the 2009 draft and is certainly out-performing expectations.  He may be closer to the majors than the other two.

Another interesting prospect for the future is Daniel Norris.  While he has yet to pitch a pro game, he is seen as one of the biggest steals of the draft as the Blue Jays selected him in the second round.  Signability issues dropped his stock, but some believe that he was good enough to be a first-rounder.  While he will not be ready for next season, look for him in the near future.

These are all internal options, but there is always a possibility that the Jays will pursue free agent starters and those available through the trade market.  Matt Garza seems to be off the table, and if Anthopolous is not willing to pay what the Cubs want, it is unlikely that he would be willing to go after Jair Jurrjens.  Other pitchers like Jon Niese would probably also create the same problem.  Roy Oswalt, Hiroki Kuroda, and Edwin Jackson seem improbable, as well.  Canadians like Jeff Francis and Rich Harden are possibilities, but Harden is injury-prone and Francis has been a disappointment over his seasons in the Majors.  It does not seem likely that Anthopolous, who seems to love young arms, would go after a guy like Bartolo Colon, either.  The Jays will likely only trade away top prospects if it means a return of a major addition to the rotation (think Cole Hamels, for example).  Right now it looks as though no such move will be made before the season begins.

So what will the rotation look like in 2012?

1. Ricky Romero
2. Brandon Morrow
3. Brett Cecil
4. Henderson Alvarez
5. Dustin McGowan

This seems the most likely result, but Carlos Villanueva has a very good shot and, although they probably would like to give him some more time in the minors, Kyle Drabek cannot be completely written out.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the pitchers head south next month.

Blue Jays Pitching Rotation Analysis

The Toronto Blue Jays have had a busy offseason when it comes to pitching.  From the early December trade of Shaun Marcum to the acquisition of Frank Francisco, the Jays have certainly concentrated on pitching in the last few months.

The first thing I want to concentrate on is the rotation: How will it look next season?  How will it perform?  Here it goes:

Ricky Romero: The Jays' top pick in the 2006 MLB amateur draft (sixth overall) will likely be asked to fill the vacancy left by 2010 Opening Day starter Shaun Marcum.  The new #1 went 14-9 last season with a 3.73 ERA in 32 Starts.  While Romero only improved his victories by one in his sophomore season, his ERA dropped substantially.  He is far from a number one pitcher, but still has the potential to improve.  The wins will come with better run support.  Romero's most significant fault is his inability to recover his confidence if he pitches a poor inning.  He will often slow to a snail's pace if there are runners on base.  In other words, he chooses to throw off his own timing.  If Romero ever wants to be a star in this league--which I believe that he could one day be--he has to learn to forget about the last pitch and concentrate on the next one.

Brandon Morrow: The Blue Jays were the clear winner of the Brandon-for-Brandon deal which took place last offseason.  Morrow learned to trade power for control last year.  This adjustment to his game--thank you Bruce Walton and Jose Molina--left him the most dominant pitcher on the Jays last season.  After early season struggles, he and Molina became permanent partners.  Morrow finished the 2010 season--which had begun with speculation about his impending demotion to Triple-A Las Vegas--with a 10-7 record and a 4.49 ERA.  The ERA almost certainly would have been lower had he been able to pitch at the beginning of the season as he did at the end.  This is a good sign for Blue Jays fans.  Also, one mustn't forget Morrow's 17K one-hitter.  This was arguably the best-pitched game of the year (and remember that six no-hitters, including two no-hitters must be taken into account).  Morrow has the stuff to be the Jays' ace in days to come--so long as he does not revert to his old ways and become AJ Burnett #2.

Brett Cecil: The third, and final, lock for the Jays' rotation next year had more wins than any other pitcher on the Blue Jays last season with 15.  The Jays' top pitching-prospect in 2008 and 2009 showed why he was so highly regarded last season after an early call-up to replace the injured Brian Tallet.  Cecil's 4.22 ERA is a terrible representation of the season he had last year.  If he could learn to pitch better against Texas and Boston (a similar problem to that of Ricky Romero) then he could be an All-Star in the near future.  There are only two worries I have about Cecil.  1: Will he be able to pitch a full season in the majors (something he has yet to be given the opportunity to do)?  And  2: Will he be able to come to his senses and shave off that atrocious mohawk?

Questions folllow for Toronto as to who will fill out the rotation.  The leading candidates seem to be:

Kyle Drabek: The son of former MLB pitcher Doug Drabek, Kyle is by far the Jays' top prospect.  Drabek received three "try-out" games with the team at the end of last season.  I think I speak for many Jays' fans as I express my disappointment in his performances--not that I don't retain high expectations for the future.  Drabek, who was made out for the entire year as a future super-star was grossly average (0-3, 4.76 ERA).  I liked what I saw from Drabek in the early innings of his games, but it seemed that, once hitters figured him out, he was much less effective.  Personally, I do not believe that Kyle is ready for the majors.  However, it seems highly likely that he be in the number 4 slot next year,

Jesse Litsch: Litsch once showed some potential, however, injuries have limited his appearances in recent years.  When Litsch did pitch last year, he was ineffective (save for one start), and soon found himself back on the disabled list.  I don't trust him to be successful in the rotation next year.  Litsch's 1-5, 5.79 ERA in 9 starts last season has left him a huge question mark for 2011.  Jesse Litsch, if he could return to 2008 form, would be a welcome addition to what would be a solid pitching rotation.  However, he is simply too unpredictable for any fan to have even the slightest trace of confidence in him.

Marc Rzepczynski: If you have never heard of Rzepczynski (pronounced Zep-chin-ski) you probably think that he is just a modern version of Sidd Fitch.  That no one could possibly have a name this crazy and, thus, he must be fake  (so I'm about to tell you about his impossible super-abilities).  No, Zepper is most certainly real and, in my opinion, is the best choice for number five in the rotation.  Rzepczynski would make an effective long-reliever (which I will touch upon in my upcoming Blue Jays bullpen analysis), but he would be better in the starting rotation.  Unlike Jesse Litsch, he has actually pitched consistently over the past two seasons.  The major worry concerning him, like Brett Cecil, is his ability to pitch a full major league season.  This is a risk that I think the Blue Jays should most certainly take.  When Rzepczynski is on his game, he is practically unhittable.  He may have the more confidence on the mound than any of the Jays' other Starter options.  Starting Rzepczynski in the rotation would make the most sense for the Blue Jays as, if he falters, he can easily be shifted into a long relief role.

Brad Mills's inconsistencies will likely prevent him from obtaining a Major League roster spot.  Scott Richmond will have to climb a long way back from his injury to come within spitting distance of the competition in front of him (though he could also take on a reliever's spot).  And Dustin McGowan may as well be forgotten about at this point.  If, and only if, he ever pitches again, it likely will not be as a Blue Jay as proving himself as better than anyone else mentioned in this article (including Mr. Fitch) would be near-impossible.

Keep checking back.  I will soon post my Blue Jays Bullpen Analysis.

Until next time, I must bid you,
Adieu