Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Random Comment Fight - Pirates Rotation

This was an argument between two people in a comment section on MLBTR.com, and it was quite interesting. Who's the idiot in this scenario? Or both? I'm not putting my money on either.

you mean FIVE more good pitcher could probably make the Pirates a contender.

The only teams Pirates can beat in the central are the Astros and the Cubs, and even that's not a guarantee.
Jeff Karstens last year:
3.38 ERA, 1.207 WHIP, 2.91 SO/BB

Edwin Jackson last year:
3.92 ERA, 1.422 WHIP, 2.49 SO/BB

Gio Gonzalez last year:
3.12 ERA, 1.317 WHIP, 2.16 SO/BB

Karstens is the #4 pitcher in the Pirates rotation.
Jeff Karstens in '09: 5.42 ERA, 1.481 WHIP, 1.16 SO/BB
Jeff Karstens in '10: 4.92 ERA, 1.410 WHIP, 2.67 SO/BB
Jeff Karstens career: 4.52 ERA, 1.365 WHIP, 1.91 SO/BB
A good rotation might not even have this kind of production from their #5 guy. Karstens is servicable at best, until I see more of this "improvement" from him.

Charlie Morton in '11: 1.532 WHIP, 4.08 xFIP, 4.0 BB/9. Not bad but not good either, and that's his career year.
James McDonald in '11: 1.485 WHIP, 4.46 xFIP, 4.11 BB/9. Again, not bad but not good either, another career year here.
Paul Maholm in '11: 1.294 WHIP (about 130 points below his career average), 5.38 SO/9, 4.03 xFIP BUT his BABIP is 20 points below his career average. For the third time, not bad but not good.
Kevin Correia in '11: 4.79 ERA, 1.390 WHIP, 4.55 SO/9, and his BABIP wasn't too far off his career average. That "good" to you?

Those are the five starters in the Pirates rotation. Do those stats honestly say "good pitcher!" to you?

Obviously I'm only picking the stats that is helpful to my side of the argument, but to be honest, I do not believe that any of these guys are "good" until they repeat their performance a couple more times.
You are looking at a group of guys that have only started 15+ games for 1 or 2 years and saying they have had "career years"? That seems awfully foolish. You think the rotation is bad based on nothing more than your own assumption that they will not continue to improve. Based on that logic, would you argue that the Braves rotation is a weakness as well?
Also, Paul Maholm is a Cub.
I'm basing it on last year's rotation, not this year, so I put Maholm in there.

Another point, how else am I suppose to base their career years? Career year is simply the best year of their career, and mark my words, Jeff Karstens probably had one of this top 3 seasons. And my "foolish assumptions"? Please, go look at fangraphs and see their projections for these guys. Are they always accurate? No. Can you come up with something better?

All the projections at fangraphs have all these people in the mediocre area, the 4-somethings ERA, except Bedard, whom they pegged at around 120 to 130 IP. You can dream all you want, the Pirates rotation will never be considered good in 2012 unless some major surprises (or minor miracles, your pick) happen.
Again, you seem to want to ignore facts and results and base your opinions solely on guesses, hunches and predictions.

The fact that you don't even know who is in the Pirates rotations seems to sum it up perfectly.