Bartolo Colón will turn 39-years old two months in to this upcoming season. The injury-prone right-hander, who won the 2005 Cy Young Award with the Los Angeles Angels, will be entering his second season after returning from an injury that sidelined him for all of 2009. As a Yankee last season, he went 8-10 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. His early season numbers were much better however, as he put up 2.77, 3.57, 2.25, and 3.82 ERAs in April, May, June, and July respectively. These numbers did not position him for thirty offers this offseason, but some fans may wonder why he chose Oakland over the other teams that offered him contracts. For that matter, the question arises: why do the Athletics want him?
Colón is nearing the end of his career and may not have many more chances to win his first World Series. One would probably think that he would want to sign with a team that could help him achieve that goal. Oakland does not fit into that category and as far as is publicly known, Colón has no professional or emotional connection to city or team. The first question that arises in this scenario is: what other choices did he have? There is some certainty that the Arizona Diamondbacks made an offer and the Yankees expressed interest--to some unknown degree--in bringing him back.
It is uncertain whether or not the Yanks actually ever made an offer. If they did not, that would explain why he will not be returning. With the recent acquisition of Michael Pineda and signing of Hiroki Kuroda, Colón's services would no longer be needed, so, in all likelihood, that is why he waited until now to select a team. The D-backs are a playoff contender, so this offer would have been interesting. Assuming that Arizona did make a legitimate contract offer to Colón, it is possible that he chose not to sign there due to the rumours of the state's anti-Hispanic attitude. Also, the Diamondbacks have only three Hispanic players, all of whom are Venezuelan (Colón is Dominican).
That said, the A's only have two Hispanic players on the team, but they do have a Dominican--Fautino De Los Santos. This could have been a deciding factor when Colón was choosing between the two teams. As far as is known, he may not have had any other offers.
The Athletics do, of course, have many fast players and the ability to manufacture runs, but in a division with the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the A's will have difficulty contending even with the second Wild Card team next season.
So why do the Athletics want Colón? This is a bit more difficult to determine. There is always the possibility that they intend to trade him mid-season should he perform well enough to draw good return. The team already has a fairly solid rotation with Brandon McCarthy, Guillermo Moscosco, Dallas Braden, Brett Anderson, and Josh Outman, as well as Brad Peacock, Jarrod Parker, and Tom Milone waiting in the wings. This is, however, a fairly young group of pitchers. Colón's veteran presence may help these players develop. Other than this, the signing is fairly odd.
The answer to the question of why Bartolo Colón signed with the Oakland Athletics is not certain, but if he can provide a veteran presence for the young pitchers and perform well enough to be traded to a contender, this could end up working out for both teams.
Sunday, January 15, 2012
Friday, January 13, 2012
Yankees and Mariners Swap Montero and Pineda...Why?
When I first heard that Jesus Montero was headed to Seattle, I was shocked. I was even more surprised when I found out that Michael Pineda--last year's 5th place finisher in Rookie of the Year voting--was going the other way. My first thought was: this is an interesting deal...I wonder if any other players are involved. When I discovered that Hector Noesi and Jose Campos were also switching teams, I changed my opinion from "interesting deal" to "WHAT?!"
Here is a breakdown of the trade:
Seattle gets:
Jesus Montero: Montero, a catcher, was one of the Yankees' top prospects since 2009, when he listed as Baseball America's #38 prospect. He followed this up with #4 and #3 ratings in 2010 and 2011 respectively. In 489 total minor league games he belted 76 home runs with a .308 batting average. In triple-A last season, he posted a .288 BA with 18 HRs--statistics comparable to those of his 2010 campaign. He also put up solid defensive numbers: he threw out 23% and 20% of baserunners in 2010 and 2011 respectively and had a .997 fielding percentage this season. There were only really two major stat categories in which he had somewhat significant changes between 2010 and '11. These were in walks--which were down this year--and strikeouts--which were up. Despite this slight regression, he was called up to the Majors at the end of the year. He put up 4 home runs and 12 RBI and a .328 BA in 61 ABs. He also spent quite a bit of time as a designated hitter. Montero is currently 22-years old.
Hector Noesi: This 24-year old right-hander has been in the Yankees' system since he was 19. In six minor league seasons he had a 25-15 record with a 3.17 ERA. In triple-A this year and last year he went 2-2 with a 3.95 ERA. 2011, however was significantly better for Noesi than 2010. He had a 3.28 ERA in 24.2 innings before he was called up to the Majors. With the Yankees he went 2-2 with a 4.47 ERA. His two starts at the end of the year did not go so well, either. In 4.2 innings he gave up 5 runs and 9 hits over these two appearances. Nevertheless, Noesi was considered to be one of the Yankees' better Major League ready prospects. His stellar May and July performances and solid August proved why this was so. July was by far his best full month--1-0, 2.57 ERA.
The Yankees acquire:
Michael Pineda: As was previously mentioned, the 6'7" 22-year old righty finished 5th in Rookie of the Year voting this past season. He finished the year 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.10 WHIP is 28 starts. He also represented the Mariners at the 2011 All-Star Game. While his numbers turned out fairly average, this could be attributed partially to fatigue and to the league finally figuring him out. His April, May, and June ERAs, respectively were 2.01, 2.81, and 3.03. It is also important to remember that Pineda's velocity can reach up to around 95 MPH. Baseball America's #17 prospect prior to 2011 put up a 3-3 record with a 4.76 ERA in the ever-difficult Pacific Coast League in 2010. His 2010 double-A numbers were much better--8-1, 2.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP. Pineda had been in the Mariners' system since he was 17.
Jose Campos: This 6'4" right-hander in now 19-years old. He started in the Mariners' system at 16 three seasons ago. In those three minor league seasons he posted a combined 14-10 record with a 3.26 ERA. Last year in low-A he went 5-5 with a 2.32 ERA in 14 starts. He also posted 85 strikeouts and a 0.97 WHIP. Campos, being so young and inexperienced, is still a few years away from being Major League ready, but expect him to get as high as double-A next season.
Montero looked to be the Yankees' catcher of the future and Pineda the Mariners' next ace--now that flips around. That trade on its own was intriguing. Throwing in Noesi and Campos makes it even more so. The Yankees' rotation prior to the trade was weak. After CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova appears to have good potential...then there is nothing. Phil Hughes has disappointed, Freddy Garcia is nothing more than a solid number 5, and I do not believe that I need to go in to the AJ Burnett issue. Pineda now slots in behind Sabathia and the newly signed Hiroki Kuroda. It will be interesting to see how he will cope in the AL East. Save for giving up five runs to the Blue Jays in each of two of his starts against Toronto he did not give up more than 3 runs against an AL East opponent all of last season. This is a positive for the Yankees.
Montero's solid hitting to date looks to be a plus for the rebuilding Mariners. He will likely be the starting catcher for Seattle next year and will have veteran Miguel Olivo behind him to ensure that he does not get overworked. Noesi may fit in to the Mariners' rotation or bullpen--whichever needs more help. Either way he will not be very important to Seattle next season as he still needs a bit of seasoning before he will be effective at the Major League level. In a year or two he should be ready for the rotation.
The most interesting piece in this deal is Campos. He has the potential to be a very good Major League pitcher if he continues at his current rate. The biggest issue with him is that his minor league service time may force the Yankees' hand in a couple of years--they may have to call him up before he is ready so as not to lose him to another team.
When I first found out about the full details of this trade, I thought that the Yankees were crazy. The more I read about it, I realize that this may not be the worst trade for either team. Pineda and Campos will both be significant parts of the Yankees' future (note that Baseball America lists only two pitchers [Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances] on the list of the Yankees' top ten prospects). The Yanks always have the money to sign a big-name catcher if the need arises. Montero will be a major player in the Mariners' near future and Noesi is a solid add.
Overall, I do not think that this is an unfair trade. It fills a hole for both teams and takes from positions of strength (the Yankees have three other catching prospects in their top 10 and Seattle is full of star-calibre pitchers). This is a deal which cannot be properly judged until the players have played for their new teams. They are all young and unpredictable. Right now I am going to give the Yankees a slight edge because Pineda has the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation guy and Campos looks to have a bright future ahead of him. Yankees fans will not be happy about losing Montero, but I am certain they will get over it fairly quickly if these players reach their full potentials. As for the Mariners, this is a good trade for a rebuilding team that has a plethora of pitchers. I think this trade will work out for both sides.
Here is a breakdown of the trade:
Seattle gets:
Jesus Montero: Montero, a catcher, was one of the Yankees' top prospects since 2009, when he listed as Baseball America's #38 prospect. He followed this up with #4 and #3 ratings in 2010 and 2011 respectively. In 489 total minor league games he belted 76 home runs with a .308 batting average. In triple-A last season, he posted a .288 BA with 18 HRs--statistics comparable to those of his 2010 campaign. He also put up solid defensive numbers: he threw out 23% and 20% of baserunners in 2010 and 2011 respectively and had a .997 fielding percentage this season. There were only really two major stat categories in which he had somewhat significant changes between 2010 and '11. These were in walks--which were down this year--and strikeouts--which were up. Despite this slight regression, he was called up to the Majors at the end of the year. He put up 4 home runs and 12 RBI and a .328 BA in 61 ABs. He also spent quite a bit of time as a designated hitter. Montero is currently 22-years old.
Hector Noesi: This 24-year old right-hander has been in the Yankees' system since he was 19. In six minor league seasons he had a 25-15 record with a 3.17 ERA. In triple-A this year and last year he went 2-2 with a 3.95 ERA. 2011, however was significantly better for Noesi than 2010. He had a 3.28 ERA in 24.2 innings before he was called up to the Majors. With the Yankees he went 2-2 with a 4.47 ERA. His two starts at the end of the year did not go so well, either. In 4.2 innings he gave up 5 runs and 9 hits over these two appearances. Nevertheless, Noesi was considered to be one of the Yankees' better Major League ready prospects. His stellar May and July performances and solid August proved why this was so. July was by far his best full month--1-0, 2.57 ERA.
The Yankees acquire:
Michael Pineda: As was previously mentioned, the 6'7" 22-year old righty finished 5th in Rookie of the Year voting this past season. He finished the year 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.10 WHIP is 28 starts. He also represented the Mariners at the 2011 All-Star Game. While his numbers turned out fairly average, this could be attributed partially to fatigue and to the league finally figuring him out. His April, May, and June ERAs, respectively were 2.01, 2.81, and 3.03. It is also important to remember that Pineda's velocity can reach up to around 95 MPH. Baseball America's #17 prospect prior to 2011 put up a 3-3 record with a 4.76 ERA in the ever-difficult Pacific Coast League in 2010. His 2010 double-A numbers were much better--8-1, 2.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP. Pineda had been in the Mariners' system since he was 17.
Jose Campos: This 6'4" right-hander in now 19-years old. He started in the Mariners' system at 16 three seasons ago. In those three minor league seasons he posted a combined 14-10 record with a 3.26 ERA. Last year in low-A he went 5-5 with a 2.32 ERA in 14 starts. He also posted 85 strikeouts and a 0.97 WHIP. Campos, being so young and inexperienced, is still a few years away from being Major League ready, but expect him to get as high as double-A next season.
Montero looked to be the Yankees' catcher of the future and Pineda the Mariners' next ace--now that flips around. That trade on its own was intriguing. Throwing in Noesi and Campos makes it even more so. The Yankees' rotation prior to the trade was weak. After CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova appears to have good potential...then there is nothing. Phil Hughes has disappointed, Freddy Garcia is nothing more than a solid number 5, and I do not believe that I need to go in to the AJ Burnett issue. Pineda now slots in behind Sabathia and the newly signed Hiroki Kuroda. It will be interesting to see how he will cope in the AL East. Save for giving up five runs to the Blue Jays in each of two of his starts against Toronto he did not give up more than 3 runs against an AL East opponent all of last season. This is a positive for the Yankees.
Montero's solid hitting to date looks to be a plus for the rebuilding Mariners. He will likely be the starting catcher for Seattle next year and will have veteran Miguel Olivo behind him to ensure that he does not get overworked. Noesi may fit in to the Mariners' rotation or bullpen--whichever needs more help. Either way he will not be very important to Seattle next season as he still needs a bit of seasoning before he will be effective at the Major League level. In a year or two he should be ready for the rotation.
The most interesting piece in this deal is Campos. He has the potential to be a very good Major League pitcher if he continues at his current rate. The biggest issue with him is that his minor league service time may force the Yankees' hand in a couple of years--they may have to call him up before he is ready so as not to lose him to another team.
When I first found out about the full details of this trade, I thought that the Yankees were crazy. The more I read about it, I realize that this may not be the worst trade for either team. Pineda and Campos will both be significant parts of the Yankees' future (note that Baseball America lists only two pitchers [Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances] on the list of the Yankees' top ten prospects). The Yanks always have the money to sign a big-name catcher if the need arises. Montero will be a major player in the Mariners' near future and Noesi is a solid add.
Overall, I do not think that this is an unfair trade. It fills a hole for both teams and takes from positions of strength (the Yankees have three other catching prospects in their top 10 and Seattle is full of star-calibre pitchers). This is a deal which cannot be properly judged until the players have played for their new teams. They are all young and unpredictable. Right now I am going to give the Yankees a slight edge because Pineda has the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation guy and Campos looks to have a bright future ahead of him. Yankees fans will not be happy about losing Montero, but I am certain they will get over it fairly quickly if these players reach their full potentials. As for the Mariners, this is a good trade for a rebuilding team that has a plethora of pitchers. I think this trade will work out for both sides.
Friday, January 6, 2012
Big Z to Miami: The Analysis
In 2010, Carlos Zambrano was suspended by the Chicago Cubs and forced to take anger management classes after he had an argument with Derrek Lee in the dugout. On August 13, 2011, Big Z claimed that he was going to retire after being ejected from a game. He was suspended for the remainder of the season. In spite of all of this, he maintained that he wanted to be a "Cub for life".
That dream died officially yesterday--although various reports had killed it a few days earlier--when he was shipped off to the Miami Marlins in exchange for Chris Volstad and cash. Volstad was the first draft pick of the Marlins in 2005 (16th overall).
Of course, whenever there is a trade, the first question that pops into everyone's mind is: who won? This is one of those deals where it is very difficult to tell at this early stage.
Marlins:
If the 30-year old Zambrano returns to 2004, 2006, or even 2007 or '08 form then the Marlins have made an outstanding deal. Big Z's ERA has never been stellar (3.60 over his career), but it is certainly good enough for a team filled with power bats and run-makers. Also, with a solid defensive infield (that is, if Hanley Ramirez can adjust successfully to third base), the team should be able to handle the excessive number of baserunners Zambrano allows (1.32 career WHIP, nothing lower than 1.38 over the last three seasons). If, however, his temper overshadows his play, the team may be in for some headaches and discipline hearings. Zambrano is supposedly a close friend of Ozzie Guillen's, but relationships always change when one friend is in a power of position over the other. Big Z could easily write off every instruction Guillen gives him as "a friend's advice", and continue to regress as a player. It is only that he has had some success in his recent career that his contract has not been considered amongst the likes of A.J. Burnett and John Lackey. If his play remains below-average and his mouth gets the better of him, the Marlins are going to end up as nothing more than the chemotherapy for the Cubs' clubhouse cancer.
An important point to remember is that the Marlins also received a significant amount of monetary compensation in this deal. The Cubs sent $15.5 million to Miami, 86.1% of the money remaining on Zambrano's contract. This leaves the Marlins on the hook for about as much money as Chris Volstad is projected to make next year. Zambrano has only one year left on his contract, so this deal is fairly low risk, but it will be significant to determining whether or not anyone will sign him for 2013. There is always the chance that he will retire after 2012--a possibility that he has alluded to in the past--in order to pursue a more family-oriented lifestyle. If this is not his plan, however, then he will have to perform spectacularly in order to receive any viable contract offers in the offseason. A determined attitude would be helpful to Miami and may bring out the best of Big Z.
Cubs:
Chris Volstad has underachieved over his four seasons of Major League action. After an outstanding first season (6-4, 2.88 ERA in 15 games, 14 starts) he slipped significantly, putting up 5.21, 4.58, and
4.59 ERAs in each of the last three seasons with a combined 26-35 record. He showed some promise at the end of last season, however, when he posted a 2.32 ERA over five September starts with a 1.16 WHIP. If he can regain control of the abilities he has shown that he has, then the Cubs will be very pleased with this trade. Otherwise, Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza (assuming that he is not traded), Travis Wood, and Randy Wells could pressure him to the back of the rotation and, if Casey Coleman or another prospect starts to perform exceptionally, Volstad may end up in the bullpen. An important note to remember is that Dempster, Garza, Wells, Volstad, and Coleman are all right-handed. Teams rarely like to have so little diversity in the rotation. Overall, Volstad is a relatively low-risk pick up. The team has control over him for a couple more seasons and he does not seem to have quite as much of an attitude as Big Z (at least not one significant enough to be published all over the Internet). He has, however, shown his anger in the past. Some fans may remember him as the pitcher who threw at Nyjer Morgan twice in a game two seasons ago--a game which featured a benches-clearing brawl and four ejections. Volstad served a six game suspension for the incident. The Cubs may be happier, however, with a player who translates his fury into in-game violence than one who takes it out on his teammates.
This deal is difficult to judge at this stage because both Volstad and Zambrano are completely unpredictable. Because of Volstad's youth and potential, and the fact that they have cleared Zambrano out of the organization are both in favour of the Cubs. However, Carlos Zambrano for $2.5 million really seems like a steal. Right now, I tentatively give the Marlins the victory simply because of the excess of money that has exchanged hands. This is a deal which needs to be reviewed at a later date for a more final determination of a victor.
That dream died officially yesterday--although various reports had killed it a few days earlier--when he was shipped off to the Miami Marlins in exchange for Chris Volstad and cash. Volstad was the first draft pick of the Marlins in 2005 (16th overall).
Of course, whenever there is a trade, the first question that pops into everyone's mind is: who won? This is one of those deals where it is very difficult to tell at this early stage.
Marlins:
If the 30-year old Zambrano returns to 2004, 2006, or even 2007 or '08 form then the Marlins have made an outstanding deal. Big Z's ERA has never been stellar (3.60 over his career), but it is certainly good enough for a team filled with power bats and run-makers. Also, with a solid defensive infield (that is, if Hanley Ramirez can adjust successfully to third base), the team should be able to handle the excessive number of baserunners Zambrano allows (1.32 career WHIP, nothing lower than 1.38 over the last three seasons). If, however, his temper overshadows his play, the team may be in for some headaches and discipline hearings. Zambrano is supposedly a close friend of Ozzie Guillen's, but relationships always change when one friend is in a power of position over the other. Big Z could easily write off every instruction Guillen gives him as "a friend's advice", and continue to regress as a player. It is only that he has had some success in his recent career that his contract has not been considered amongst the likes of A.J. Burnett and John Lackey. If his play remains below-average and his mouth gets the better of him, the Marlins are going to end up as nothing more than the chemotherapy for the Cubs' clubhouse cancer.
An important point to remember is that the Marlins also received a significant amount of monetary compensation in this deal. The Cubs sent $15.5 million to Miami, 86.1% of the money remaining on Zambrano's contract. This leaves the Marlins on the hook for about as much money as Chris Volstad is projected to make next year. Zambrano has only one year left on his contract, so this deal is fairly low risk, but it will be significant to determining whether or not anyone will sign him for 2013. There is always the chance that he will retire after 2012--a possibility that he has alluded to in the past--in order to pursue a more family-oriented lifestyle. If this is not his plan, however, then he will have to perform spectacularly in order to receive any viable contract offers in the offseason. A determined attitude would be helpful to Miami and may bring out the best of Big Z.
Cubs:
Chris Volstad has underachieved over his four seasons of Major League action. After an outstanding first season (6-4, 2.88 ERA in 15 games, 14 starts) he slipped significantly, putting up 5.21, 4.58, and
4.59 ERAs in each of the last three seasons with a combined 26-35 record. He showed some promise at the end of last season, however, when he posted a 2.32 ERA over five September starts with a 1.16 WHIP. If he can regain control of the abilities he has shown that he has, then the Cubs will be very pleased with this trade. Otherwise, Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza (assuming that he is not traded), Travis Wood, and Randy Wells could pressure him to the back of the rotation and, if Casey Coleman or another prospect starts to perform exceptionally, Volstad may end up in the bullpen. An important note to remember is that Dempster, Garza, Wells, Volstad, and Coleman are all right-handed. Teams rarely like to have so little diversity in the rotation. Overall, Volstad is a relatively low-risk pick up. The team has control over him for a couple more seasons and he does not seem to have quite as much of an attitude as Big Z (at least not one significant enough to be published all over the Internet). He has, however, shown his anger in the past. Some fans may remember him as the pitcher who threw at Nyjer Morgan twice in a game two seasons ago--a game which featured a benches-clearing brawl and four ejections. Volstad served a six game suspension for the incident. The Cubs may be happier, however, with a player who translates his fury into in-game violence than one who takes it out on his teammates.
This deal is difficult to judge at this stage because both Volstad and Zambrano are completely unpredictable. Because of Volstad's youth and potential, and the fact that they have cleared Zambrano out of the organization are both in favour of the Cubs. However, Carlos Zambrano for $2.5 million really seems like a steal. Right now, I tentatively give the Marlins the victory simply because of the excess of money that has exchanged hands. This is a deal which needs to be reviewed at a later date for a more final determination of a victor.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Toronto Blue Jays: The Bullpen 2012
Yesterday I posted about the Toronto Blue Jays starting rotation, today we look to the other end of the pitching spectrum: the bullpen.
Shall we look at the opening day bullpen from last season? (2011 stats with the Blue Jays in brackets [note that final stat is saves/opportunities])
Shawn Camp (67G, 6-3, 4.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 1/4)
Jason Frasor (44G, 2-1, 2.98 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 0/2)
Casey Janssen (55G, 6-0, 2.26 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2/4)
David Purcey (5G, 0-0 11.57 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 0/0)
Jon Rauch (53G, 5-4, 4.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11/16)
Marc Rzepczynski (43G, 2-3, 2.97 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 0/3)
Carlos Villanueva (33G [13 starts], 6-4, 4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 0/1)
One must also remember that Octavio Dotel (36G, 2-1, 3.68 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 1/1) and Frank Francisco (54G, 1-4, 3.55 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 17/21) both started the season on the disabled list. Of these nine pitchers, only Frason, Janssen, and Villanueva remain on the team (Frasor after a brief stint with the White Sox).
Villanueva was by far the best pitcher out of the bullpen over the first two months of the season, which won him a role as a starter before an injury sent him back to the 'pen. Over 13 relief appearances from April 1 to May 18, he posted a 1.48 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. While his pitching in the rotation was not quite as stellar, he had a confidence on the mound that few of the other pitchers had. He will have a chance to compete for a spot in the rotation next year, but it is more probable that he will end up in the bullpen as a long man/middle innings eater.
Jason Frasor, who was traded along with Zach Stewart to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Edwin Jackson mid-season, was reacquired on Sunday for two minor league pitchers. Frasor holds the Blue Jays franchise record for most appearances by a pitcher (career) and he will get a chance to add to this total in 2012. As a solid back-end reliever, who can step in as a temporary closer if need be, he is one of four players assured a spot in the bullpen next season.
Casey Janssen, perhaps the biggest surprise of the 2011 campaign, is another lock for next year. The injuries to Dotel and Francisco were the only reasons why he even made the team last year, and he made the most of his opportunity. In spite of being sent down early in the year (more because the team could than that they wanted to) he did not falter and showed no signs of anger or disappointment upon his recall a few days later. It was not a particularly close competition in which Janssen proved that he was the best reliever on the team last year. He won the Blue Jays Most Improved Player Award at the end of the season.
The remainder of the pitchers competing for roles next season started 2011 somewhere else. To begin, the other two certain locks for next year.
Although he has not yet officially been signed, Darren Oliver will be part of the Jays organization as soon as he passes his physical. The 41-year old southpaw posted a 2.29 ERA last season (2.08 against lefties and 2.45 against righties). He slots in as the best left-hander on the team and, as a result, the certain lefty-specialist. He was 2/6 in save opportunities and put up a 1.14 WHIP. So far, he is the Jays' biggest free agent signing. Oliver is one of those pitchers who seems to get better with age. His last four seasons have been the best of his career. Look for him to pitch primarily against lefties, but he may spot Janssen or Frasor in the seventh or eighth from time to time.
And then there is Sergio Santos, the closer who GM Alex Anthopolous plucked from the White Sox in exchange for well-regarded pitching prospect Nestor Molina. Santos is under team control for six years and gives the Blue Jays the closer they have sought after since BJ Ryan's last good season in 2008. Santos picked up 30 saves in 36 opportunities and posted a 3.55 ERA and 1.11 WHIP last season. His most significant statistics were his .181 batting average against and his 92 strikeouts in 63.1 innings. With Frasor, Janssen, and (sometimes) Oliver, the Jays have the seventh, eighth, and ninth settled for next year.
This only leaves three (maybe four) spots left in the bullpen. Who is competing for these roles? Chad Beck, Joel Carreno, Danny Farquhar Jim Hoey, Aaron Laffey, Jesse Litsch, Trystan Magnuson, Luis Perez, Carlos Villanueva, and even Garrett Mock are possibilities.
Beck, Carreno, Laffey, Litsch, Perez, and Villanueva have all been starters in the past. All of them, save for Beck, will likely be given a chance to make the rotation next season, although Villanueva seems to be the only one with a legitimate shot at this position.
Chad Beck was called up in September last year after going 9-8 with a 4.50 ERA over three minor league levels. The PCL was not good to him, but is it really good for any pitcher? He started 23 of his 31 games with all of his relief appearances coming in double-A. After the season's completion he pitched for the Phoenix Desert Dogs of the Arizona Fall League, appearing in five games and surrendering no runs on two hits and a walk. Beck has an outside shot at making the team, an opportunity which is helped by his solid performances in the 2.1 innings he pitched for the Jays at the end of 2011.
Joel Carreno was unbelievable in his 15.2 innings in August and September with the Blue Jays. He surrendered only two runs on eleven hits and four walks. He also struck out 14 batters. These numbers were an improvement on his minor league stats as a starter: 7-9, 3.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP. Carreno was used well by John Farrell and, in the words of MLB.com writer Gregor Chisholm, he "became a favourite" of the manager. His stellar performance gives him an advantage going in to spring training, but if he can only find a spot as a middle-reliever, the Jays may prefer that he start in the minors.
Danny Farquhar was traded for Rajai Davis prior to the 2011 season before being reacquired in exchange for David Pursey. The submariner was terrible in his first Major League performance (he surrendered 4 runs--3 earned--over 0.2 of an inning). He settled down and was solid in his next two appearances. Farquhar is the type of pitcher suited for the later innings. He was a closer in triple-A and it is probable that--with the Jays' back-end being fairly solid--this is the position he will take at the beginning of the 2012 season.
Jim Hoey was claimed off waivers from the Minnesota Twins last month. The hard-throwing reliever has not been impressive at the Major League level and was acquired more likely for his potential than for 2012. It is highly improbable that he will make the team out of Spring Training, but he may be called up in the case of an injury.
Aaron Laffey wants to be a starter--that is why he signed with Toronto--but this may not be the most likely place for him. He will compete with Jesse Litsch, Luis Perez, and Carlos Villanueva for a long-relief job, but as the Jays have the ability to send him to the minors without repercussion, they may choose to do so. Villanueva is assured a spot on the team in one position or another, so it is going to be difficult for Laffey to find a spot--especially because Alex Anthopolous has first-hand experience with Litsch and Perez that he does not have with Laffey.
Litsch has been up and down throughout his Major League career, but he was very good out of the bullpen at the end of last season. His chances of ever being a starter again are slim, but he seems to have found his niche in the 'pen. He finished off 2012 6-3 with a 4.44 ERA, but it is important to note that his ERA did go down after he became a reliever. Although he had a few bad games near the end of the year, he was one of the more consistent pitchers out of the bullpen in August and September. He has a good shot at making the team, particularly if Villanueva makes it as a starter, leaving the team without a long-man.
Trystan Magnuson was traded along with Farquhar for Rajai Davis prior to 2011, but was reacquired after the season's completion in exchange for cash. The 26-year old Canadian was not very good for the Athletics, posting a 6.14 ERA over 9 appearances. He was solid in the minors, however, putting up a 2.98 ERA over 45.1 innings in the always-difficult PCL. He will have to prove himself in Spring Training, but he may be able to make the team. He is more likely to start in triple-A, but his minor league numbers were too good last year for him to stay down there for long.
Luis Perez had an up and down year. He was not spectacular as a starter and his relief numbers were average. It seemed as if his statistics were better than his abilities last season, and it was not until a late-season breakdown that his ERA rose to 5.12 and his WHIP to 1.55. The team seemed to like him at the beginning of the year and forgot about him at the end. Being a lefty, he has a good shot at making the team, but he has Aaron Laffey with whom he must now contend. This should create healthy competition for one of the final bullpen spots. The fact that he can double as a long-man would help his case more if Laffey, Litsch, and Villanueva were not already vying for the same position as he.
Garrett Mock would need to rely on either substantial numbers of injuries to other relievers or a miraculous Spring Training in order to make the team. Over 55 Major League games, 19 starts, he has an ERA of 5.17 and a record of 4-13. Mock did not pitch in the Majors last season and did not make the most of his opportunity in the minors. In 49.1 innings over four levels of the minors, he put up an ERA of 6.39 with a 1.62 WHIP and a 1-5 record. Mock is a non-roster invitee and is likely to remain off the roster.
An interesting question will be whether or not the Blue Jays intend on carrying seven or eight relief pitchers in 2012. With Mock, Farquhar, Magnuson, and Beck as unlikely candidates to make the team, it looks like Carreno, Laffey, Litsch, Perez, and Villanueva will be competing for those last three or four spots. Of course, if Villanueva does the improbable and makes the rotation next year, one of Dustin McGowan or Brett Cecil could also enter the mix. Perez and Laffey have the advantage of being lefties, so one of them is likely to make the team. After that Carreno and Litsch will have to compete for the final spot--unless Anthopolous chooses to go with an eight man 'pen.
The probable bullpen of 2012 if only seven players are taken:
Closer: Sergio Santos
Eighth Inning: Casey Janssen
Seventh Inning: Jason Frasor
Lefty-Specialist (seventh inning fill in): Darren Oliver
Long Reliever: Carlos Villanueva
Middle Reliever: Luis Perez
Middle Reliever: Jesse Litsch
This leaves Laffey and Carreno in the minors. Carreno has proven that he is Major League ready, but it is better for his development if he starts in the minors than if he throws one inning every fourth day--often when down two or three runs.
Expect to see Aaron Laffey, Joel Carreno, Danny Farquhar, and Trystan Magnuson in the big leagues at some point during the season--it is just not likely that that is where they will start. Remember to always expect the unexpected. Anyone could be the next Casey Janssen.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Toronto Blue Jays: The Rotation 2012
Shall we take a look back at what the opening day rotation for the Toronto Blue Jays was last season? (2011 stats in brackets; the number to the left of the player's name indicates number of games pitched [note that only statistics as a Blue Jay are shown here])
32 Ricky Romero (15-11, 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
18 (14 starts) Kyle Drabek (4-5, 6.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP)
20 Brett Cecil (4-11, 4.73 ERA, 1.33 WHIP)
20 Jo-Jo Reyes (5-8, 5.40 ERA, 1.59 WHIP)
28 (8 starts) Jesse Litsch (6-3, 4.44 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)
Where are they now?
Romero was, by far, the best pitcher on the team last season. His spectacular numbers earned him an All-Star selection and a Pitcher of the Month Award. Romero proved his critics wrong and put up the type of season that was expected of him when he was chosen 6th overall in the 2005 amateur entry draft. He has shown that he has the stuff to be a legitimate ace in the MLB and has solidified a spot in the Jays' rotation for next season. Barring a blockbuster deal (and with Alex Anthopolous at the helm, this is always a possibility) Ricky will be the Opening Day starter.
Drabek has received mixed opinions. Some believe that he still has the potential to be a solid big-league pitcher while others see him as a complete bust. I find myself leaning toward the former, but the supposed top prospect in the Roy Halladay deal has a long way to go before he is ready to be an effective Major Leaguer. Expect him to start the season in Triple-A and expect a high ERA--not that that's a particularly meaningful statistic in the Pacific Coast League. Hopefully injuries will not force him to the majors too early and he will be a September call up--assuming he does not over-perform with the 51s. Drabek needs to work on controlling his emotions, though, before he can go anywhere.
Brett Cecil was one of the biggest disappointments of the season. After an unexpectedly good 2010 campaign that saw the 38th overall pick in the 2007 draft pick up 15 wins in 28 starts, Cecil dropped off the map in 2011. A poor start had him packing his bags and heading to the minors before a late-season recall. Where his velocity had dipped early he started to recover--although he could not equal his abilities of the past. Cecil certainly showed promise during his second stint with the Jays in 2011 but struggled in the later innings. He was often solid throughout the game, but when the seventh inning rolled along, he lost all ability to finish. This could be attributed to fatigue. An earlier start on next season and a bit of work on velocity and Cecil could make the team out of spring-training. He may have to fight it out for the last spot in the rotation, but unless the Jays pick up another starter, it is probable that he will make the team.
Jo-Jo Reyes was picked up at the end of the 2010 season along with Yunel Escobar in exchange for Alex Gonzalez, Tim Collins, and Tyler Pastornicky. Escobar has kept Jays fans generally happy with the deal, but Jo-Jo turned out to be a complete waste of time. After tying the Major League record for most consecutive starts without a win (28), he picked up his first victory of the season on May 30. A few solid starts later, he returned to early season form and was designated for assignment on July 23. He was picked up by the Orioles, who let him go at the end of the season. Now a free-agent, Reyes will likely be anywhere but Toronto next season.
Jesse Litsch endured injury and demotion before finally finding a permanent role in the bullpen. He put up a 4.66 ERA as a starter, going 4-3, but he performed much better out of the 'pen (2-0, 4.08 ERA). He was a solid and trust-worthy long man who looks like he will be a good contributor to the team next season--in the 'pen once again. He will have to fight for a job (With Sergio Santos, Casey Janssen, Darren Oliver, and Jason Frasor as locks, he will have to battle it out with Luis Perez, Aaron Laffey, Danny Farquhar, Chad Beck, Joel Carreno, Trystan Magnuson, and possibly Carlos Villanueva for the final 3 or 4 spots). This means, of course, that he will not be in the rotation unless severe injuries force the hand of Jays management.
An early season injury kept Brandon Morrow out of the rotation until April 23. Morrow, who had a promising 2010 season (who can forget the 17 K one-hitter against the Rays?) had an up and down year in 2011. He posted an 11-11 record with a 4.72 ERA in 30 starts. There were many tense moments during Morrow's season and for the longest time he pitched like he had done at the beginning of the 2010 season (for those who do not know, this is not a good thing). At the end of the year, however, he found his ability again. While it was still impossible to predict which Morrow would show up for the game, the good one was almost unhittable. His September 18 and 23 starts against the Yankees and Rays that showed off his best stuff. Over the two games, he pitched 15 innings giving up 0 runs on 6 hits. His 4 walks against Tampa Bay were not encouraging, but he only surrendered one against New York. Morrow needs to find consistency, but he is assured a spot in the rotation next year--right now, directly behind Ricky Romero.
One of the most interesting pitchers for the Jays last season was Henderson Alvarez. The 21-year old righty was called up in early August, all that most Jays fans expected was that he would throw hard. In that respect, he disappointed a little--not to say that he did not throw hard, he was just a little over-hyped in that category. He did not disappoint in any other area. Over 10 starts, the rookie put up a 1-3 record with a 3.53 ERA. Early in September, his ERA was below 3.00, rather near to Ricky Romero's. While Jays management would deny it, Alvarez seems to be a lock for the rotation next year. It is my opinion that he is the most valuable starter currently on the Blue Jays roster--no disrespect to Romero. Of all the players on the team, he is one of two who I would not trade (the other being Jose Bautista). He has the stuff to be a legitimate number one pitcher in the near future. Note that he picked up 40 Ks and posted a 1.13 WHIP, as well.
One of the biggest surprises of the 2011 season was the return of Dustin McGowan, who had last pitched in 2008. Although he finished with an 0-2 record with a 6.43 ERA, he showed that he could still pitch effectively at the big-league level. Over 21.0 innings, he struck out 20 batters and held opponents to a .247 batting average against. He is not assured a spot in the rotation, but the Jays do not have the luxury to send him to the minors and doctors recommend that he remain a starter (maintain a consistent schedule so that he does not injure himself again). Right now, McGowan seems the most likely 5th starter, but he will certainly have to compete in spring training to win that title.
The remainder of the possible starters for 2011 who are currently on the team all spent time a relievers for much of last season.
Carlos Villanueva was stellar out of the bullpen at the beginning of the season. Over 13 relief appearances from the start of the year until May 18, he posted a 1.48 ERA and picked up a win. He also posted a 0.82 WHIP with an opponents average against of .132. After taking over as a starter, his numbers dipped a bit. He finished the season 6-4, 4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 33 appearances (13 starts). He also missed most of August with an injury. Villanueva was a reliable pitcher in 2011 (pretty good for a guy picked up in exchange for cash) and will certainly have a job in 2012. If he wants it to be as a starter, he's going to have to work hard in spring training.
Luis Perez is a left-hander, which is to his advantage, and he pitched well in his first appearance as a starter last year after being a reliever for much of it. He was always inconsistent, however, finishing the season with a 5.12 ERA over 37 appearances (4 starts). He had some issues with the long ball, giving up 9 home runs on the season, and was especially poor in September. Perez's first concern should be making the team at all, let alone as a starter.
Aaron Laffey: A recent free agent signing, Laffey has not proven himself to be a particularly good starter in the past. He had his best season last year (3-2, 3.88 ERA), the first of his five Major League seasons in which he did not start a single game. Laffey felt that Toronto was the place where he had the best chance at cracking the rotation, but he also signed a split contract--meaning that it is likely that Alex Anthopolous has much smaller plans for him (with Brad Mills gone to Los Angeles, the 51s need a new number one). Like with Perez, making the team should be his primary intention. His best hope at the starting rotation is an injury to Brett Cecil or Ricky Romero (seeing as the team would likely want to replace a southpaw with a southpaw).
Joel Carreno seems to be the final internal option who has seen big league time. Over 15.2 innings as a reliever last season, he posted a 1.15 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He was one of the most consistently good pitchers on the team over the last two months. He has certainly earned an opportunity at the rotation, but numbers like that make him an excellent trade candidate or, possibly, a future closer. Carreno is often forgotten in talks of the rotation as many people forget that he was a starter in the minors. With Double-A New Hampshire last season he went 7-9 with a 3.41 ERA in 24 games (23 starts). Carreno may or may not make the team next season, but if he does, he is a viable option as a back-end starter.
All of those above have Major League experience. The Jays, however, are famous for their highly regarded minor league system. With Nestor Molina gone to Chicago, the Jays are left with four top pitching prospects, three of who may be ready by some point next year.
Deck McGuire, the Jays' 2010 first-rounder, put up a 9-5 record and a 3.02 ERA in Single-A Dunedin and Double-A New Hampshire last year and may be ready as a September call up if not earlier. He is 22-years old. Chad Jenkins, now 24, went 9-12 with a 3.70 ERA over the same two levels as McGuire last year. While these numbers are not quite as good as McGuire's, he is seen as a good-potential player, and his age may mean that he is mature enough to handle the Majors. The final Major League ready prospect is Drew Hutchison. Over 28 starts with Lansing, Dunedin, and New Hampshire, he put up a 2.53 ERA to go along with a 14-5 record. He also struck out 171 batters in 149.1 innings. The 21-year old was chosen in the 15th round of the 2009 draft and is certainly out-performing expectations. He may be closer to the majors than the other two.
Another interesting prospect for the future is Daniel Norris. While he has yet to pitch a pro game, he is seen as one of the biggest steals of the draft as the Blue Jays selected him in the second round. Signability issues dropped his stock, but some believe that he was good enough to be a first-rounder. While he will not be ready for next season, look for him in the near future.
These are all internal options, but there is always a possibility that the Jays will pursue free agent starters and those available through the trade market. Matt Garza seems to be off the table, and if Anthopolous is not willing to pay what the Cubs want, it is unlikely that he would be willing to go after Jair Jurrjens. Other pitchers like Jon Niese would probably also create the same problem. Roy Oswalt, Hiroki Kuroda, and Edwin Jackson seem improbable, as well. Canadians like Jeff Francis and Rich Harden are possibilities, but Harden is injury-prone and Francis has been a disappointment over his seasons in the Majors. It does not seem likely that Anthopolous, who seems to love young arms, would go after a guy like Bartolo Colon, either. The Jays will likely only trade away top prospects if it means a return of a major addition to the rotation (think Cole Hamels, for example). Right now it looks as though no such move will be made before the season begins.
So what will the rotation look like in 2012?
1. Ricky Romero
2. Brandon Morrow
3. Brett Cecil
4. Henderson Alvarez
5. Dustin McGowan
This seems the most likely result, but Carlos Villanueva has a very good shot and, although they probably would like to give him some more time in the minors, Kyle Drabek cannot be completely written out.
It will be interesting to see what happens when the pitchers head south next month.
32 Ricky Romero (15-11, 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
18 (14 starts) Kyle Drabek (4-5, 6.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP)
20 Brett Cecil (4-11, 4.73 ERA, 1.33 WHIP)
20 Jo-Jo Reyes (5-8, 5.40 ERA, 1.59 WHIP)
28 (8 starts) Jesse Litsch (6-3, 4.44 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)
Where are they now?
Romero was, by far, the best pitcher on the team last season. His spectacular numbers earned him an All-Star selection and a Pitcher of the Month Award. Romero proved his critics wrong and put up the type of season that was expected of him when he was chosen 6th overall in the 2005 amateur entry draft. He has shown that he has the stuff to be a legitimate ace in the MLB and has solidified a spot in the Jays' rotation for next season. Barring a blockbuster deal (and with Alex Anthopolous at the helm, this is always a possibility) Ricky will be the Opening Day starter.
Drabek has received mixed opinions. Some believe that he still has the potential to be a solid big-league pitcher while others see him as a complete bust. I find myself leaning toward the former, but the supposed top prospect in the Roy Halladay deal has a long way to go before he is ready to be an effective Major Leaguer. Expect him to start the season in Triple-A and expect a high ERA--not that that's a particularly meaningful statistic in the Pacific Coast League. Hopefully injuries will not force him to the majors too early and he will be a September call up--assuming he does not over-perform with the 51s. Drabek needs to work on controlling his emotions, though, before he can go anywhere.
Brett Cecil was one of the biggest disappointments of the season. After an unexpectedly good 2010 campaign that saw the 38th overall pick in the 2007 draft pick up 15 wins in 28 starts, Cecil dropped off the map in 2011. A poor start had him packing his bags and heading to the minors before a late-season recall. Where his velocity had dipped early he started to recover--although he could not equal his abilities of the past. Cecil certainly showed promise during his second stint with the Jays in 2011 but struggled in the later innings. He was often solid throughout the game, but when the seventh inning rolled along, he lost all ability to finish. This could be attributed to fatigue. An earlier start on next season and a bit of work on velocity and Cecil could make the team out of spring-training. He may have to fight it out for the last spot in the rotation, but unless the Jays pick up another starter, it is probable that he will make the team.
Jo-Jo Reyes was picked up at the end of the 2010 season along with Yunel Escobar in exchange for Alex Gonzalez, Tim Collins, and Tyler Pastornicky. Escobar has kept Jays fans generally happy with the deal, but Jo-Jo turned out to be a complete waste of time. After tying the Major League record for most consecutive starts without a win (28), he picked up his first victory of the season on May 30. A few solid starts later, he returned to early season form and was designated for assignment on July 23. He was picked up by the Orioles, who let him go at the end of the season. Now a free-agent, Reyes will likely be anywhere but Toronto next season.
Jesse Litsch endured injury and demotion before finally finding a permanent role in the bullpen. He put up a 4.66 ERA as a starter, going 4-3, but he performed much better out of the 'pen (2-0, 4.08 ERA). He was a solid and trust-worthy long man who looks like he will be a good contributor to the team next season--in the 'pen once again. He will have to fight for a job (With Sergio Santos, Casey Janssen, Darren Oliver, and Jason Frasor as locks, he will have to battle it out with Luis Perez, Aaron Laffey, Danny Farquhar, Chad Beck, Joel Carreno, Trystan Magnuson, and possibly Carlos Villanueva for the final 3 or 4 spots). This means, of course, that he will not be in the rotation unless severe injuries force the hand of Jays management.
An early season injury kept Brandon Morrow out of the rotation until April 23. Morrow, who had a promising 2010 season (who can forget the 17 K one-hitter against the Rays?) had an up and down year in 2011. He posted an 11-11 record with a 4.72 ERA in 30 starts. There were many tense moments during Morrow's season and for the longest time he pitched like he had done at the beginning of the 2010 season (for those who do not know, this is not a good thing). At the end of the year, however, he found his ability again. While it was still impossible to predict which Morrow would show up for the game, the good one was almost unhittable. His September 18 and 23 starts against the Yankees and Rays that showed off his best stuff. Over the two games, he pitched 15 innings giving up 0 runs on 6 hits. His 4 walks against Tampa Bay were not encouraging, but he only surrendered one against New York. Morrow needs to find consistency, but he is assured a spot in the rotation next year--right now, directly behind Ricky Romero.
One of the most interesting pitchers for the Jays last season was Henderson Alvarez. The 21-year old righty was called up in early August, all that most Jays fans expected was that he would throw hard. In that respect, he disappointed a little--not to say that he did not throw hard, he was just a little over-hyped in that category. He did not disappoint in any other area. Over 10 starts, the rookie put up a 1-3 record with a 3.53 ERA. Early in September, his ERA was below 3.00, rather near to Ricky Romero's. While Jays management would deny it, Alvarez seems to be a lock for the rotation next year. It is my opinion that he is the most valuable starter currently on the Blue Jays roster--no disrespect to Romero. Of all the players on the team, he is one of two who I would not trade (the other being Jose Bautista). He has the stuff to be a legitimate number one pitcher in the near future. Note that he picked up 40 Ks and posted a 1.13 WHIP, as well.
One of the biggest surprises of the 2011 season was the return of Dustin McGowan, who had last pitched in 2008. Although he finished with an 0-2 record with a 6.43 ERA, he showed that he could still pitch effectively at the big-league level. Over 21.0 innings, he struck out 20 batters and held opponents to a .247 batting average against. He is not assured a spot in the rotation, but the Jays do not have the luxury to send him to the minors and doctors recommend that he remain a starter (maintain a consistent schedule so that he does not injure himself again). Right now, McGowan seems the most likely 5th starter, but he will certainly have to compete in spring training to win that title.
The remainder of the possible starters for 2011 who are currently on the team all spent time a relievers for much of last season.
Carlos Villanueva was stellar out of the bullpen at the beginning of the season. Over 13 relief appearances from the start of the year until May 18, he posted a 1.48 ERA and picked up a win. He also posted a 0.82 WHIP with an opponents average against of .132. After taking over as a starter, his numbers dipped a bit. He finished the season 6-4, 4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 33 appearances (13 starts). He also missed most of August with an injury. Villanueva was a reliable pitcher in 2011 (pretty good for a guy picked up in exchange for cash) and will certainly have a job in 2012. If he wants it to be as a starter, he's going to have to work hard in spring training.
Luis Perez is a left-hander, which is to his advantage, and he pitched well in his first appearance as a starter last year after being a reliever for much of it. He was always inconsistent, however, finishing the season with a 5.12 ERA over 37 appearances (4 starts). He had some issues with the long ball, giving up 9 home runs on the season, and was especially poor in September. Perez's first concern should be making the team at all, let alone as a starter.
Aaron Laffey: A recent free agent signing, Laffey has not proven himself to be a particularly good starter in the past. He had his best season last year (3-2, 3.88 ERA), the first of his five Major League seasons in which he did not start a single game. Laffey felt that Toronto was the place where he had the best chance at cracking the rotation, but he also signed a split contract--meaning that it is likely that Alex Anthopolous has much smaller plans for him (with Brad Mills gone to Los Angeles, the 51s need a new number one). Like with Perez, making the team should be his primary intention. His best hope at the starting rotation is an injury to Brett Cecil or Ricky Romero (seeing as the team would likely want to replace a southpaw with a southpaw).
Joel Carreno seems to be the final internal option who has seen big league time. Over 15.2 innings as a reliever last season, he posted a 1.15 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He was one of the most consistently good pitchers on the team over the last two months. He has certainly earned an opportunity at the rotation, but numbers like that make him an excellent trade candidate or, possibly, a future closer. Carreno is often forgotten in talks of the rotation as many people forget that he was a starter in the minors. With Double-A New Hampshire last season he went 7-9 with a 3.41 ERA in 24 games (23 starts). Carreno may or may not make the team next season, but if he does, he is a viable option as a back-end starter.
All of those above have Major League experience. The Jays, however, are famous for their highly regarded minor league system. With Nestor Molina gone to Chicago, the Jays are left with four top pitching prospects, three of who may be ready by some point next year.
Deck McGuire, the Jays' 2010 first-rounder, put up a 9-5 record and a 3.02 ERA in Single-A Dunedin and Double-A New Hampshire last year and may be ready as a September call up if not earlier. He is 22-years old. Chad Jenkins, now 24, went 9-12 with a 3.70 ERA over the same two levels as McGuire last year. While these numbers are not quite as good as McGuire's, he is seen as a good-potential player, and his age may mean that he is mature enough to handle the Majors. The final Major League ready prospect is Drew Hutchison. Over 28 starts with Lansing, Dunedin, and New Hampshire, he put up a 2.53 ERA to go along with a 14-5 record. He also struck out 171 batters in 149.1 innings. The 21-year old was chosen in the 15th round of the 2009 draft and is certainly out-performing expectations. He may be closer to the majors than the other two.
Another interesting prospect for the future is Daniel Norris. While he has yet to pitch a pro game, he is seen as one of the biggest steals of the draft as the Blue Jays selected him in the second round. Signability issues dropped his stock, but some believe that he was good enough to be a first-rounder. While he will not be ready for next season, look for him in the near future.
These are all internal options, but there is always a possibility that the Jays will pursue free agent starters and those available through the trade market. Matt Garza seems to be off the table, and if Anthopolous is not willing to pay what the Cubs want, it is unlikely that he would be willing to go after Jair Jurrjens. Other pitchers like Jon Niese would probably also create the same problem. Roy Oswalt, Hiroki Kuroda, and Edwin Jackson seem improbable, as well. Canadians like Jeff Francis and Rich Harden are possibilities, but Harden is injury-prone and Francis has been a disappointment over his seasons in the Majors. It does not seem likely that Anthopolous, who seems to love young arms, would go after a guy like Bartolo Colon, either. The Jays will likely only trade away top prospects if it means a return of a major addition to the rotation (think Cole Hamels, for example). Right now it looks as though no such move will be made before the season begins.
So what will the rotation look like in 2012?
1. Ricky Romero
2. Brandon Morrow
3. Brett Cecil
4. Henderson Alvarez
5. Dustin McGowan
This seems the most likely result, but Carlos Villanueva has a very good shot and, although they probably would like to give him some more time in the minors, Kyle Drabek cannot be completely written out.
It will be interesting to see what happens when the pitchers head south next month.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Latos for Alonso, Who Wins?
Tim Stauffer, Clayton Richard, Dustin Moseley, Cory Luebke--sound like an all-star team? Maybe not, but all four of these Padres pitchers had ERAs below 4.00 last season (Clayton Richard's 3.88 was the highest of them). In fact, Luebke and Moseley posted lower ERAs than--the now passé--Mat Latos (although Moseley pitched in 11 fewer games and Luebke spend the majority of the season as a reliever).
But nevertheless, the Padres do not have a completely nonexistent pitching staff without their former number one. No, none of these pitchers had winning records last year (including Latos), but it's a difficult feat to accomplish when one's team only wins 71 games.
As for the Reds, Latos slots in nicely behind Johnny Cueto and gives Cincinnati a strong one-two punch for next season. Clearing out Edinson Volquez was a good move as well seeing as, since 2008, his best season included a 4-3 record and a 4.31 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP. And while he finally able to stay healthy last season, a 5-7 record with a 5.71 ERA tells me that some fans wish the disabled list would be expanded to accept players who are not injured, as well.
Who's going where?
To the Padres: Yonder Alonso, Edinson Volquez, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger
Alonso: The 24 year-old first base prospect looked good enough that some believed that the Reds may have been willing to trade 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto in order to provide Alonso with playing time. In 47 big-league games last season, he put up a .330 BA and batted in 15 runs with 5 HRs. In Louisville, he's put up .296 BAs with 12 HRs and 56 RBI in each of the past two seasons. Alonso and Jesus Guzman will have to battle it out for a starting position in 2012, which will create pressure on both to play to the best of their abilities. This will be valuable for the Padres.
Volquez: He went 17-6 in 2008 with a 3.21 ERA. If he can return to that form, he may be the biggest steal in the deal.
Grandal: Grandal jumped from High-A to AA to AAA last season, putting up combined numbers of 14 HRs and 68 RBI, supported by a .305 BA. 2 of those RBI came during his short (4 game) stay in AAA, where he batted .500. Grandal is 22 years old and is entering only his third season of Pro-Ball in 2012. With only Nick Hundley ahead of him, look for Grandal to make the majors soon, possibly as a September call-up.
Boxberger: This 23 year-old AAA reliever posted a 2.93 ERA in 25 appearances with Louisville last season. He also spent time in AA, putting up a 1.31 ERA in 30 games. He managed 11 saves over the two levels and pulled out a combined 0.97 WHIP. Boxberger is also entering his third year of professional baseball next season. While the Padres' bullpen is relatively strong, most of its players are young, so Boxberger would fit right in--and possibly quickly.
To the Reds: Mat Latos
Latos: Breaking with tradition, the Reds' sole acquisition had a stellar sophomore season in 2010--posting a 14-10 record with a 2.92 ERA with an amazing 1.08 WHIP. The numbers dipped a bit in 2011--9-14, 3.47 ERA, 1.18 WHIP--but they were some of the best on the NL West bottom-feeding Padres. Latos will be the number two after Johnny Cueto and gives the Reds a strong pitcher who may be able to push the team from third in the NL Central into second (last year's Wild Card spot), and with the extra Wild Card for next season, the Reds will certainly be a threat. But Latos will not be able to do it alone, and the Reds definitely need to make some more moves before the winter is up.
So, who wins the deal?
In the short term it looks like the Reds will reap the benefits of the trade more so than the Padres. The addition Latos and the subtraction of Volquez will make the rotation significantly better, possibly enough to contend. In the long term, however, the loss of Yonder Alonso will hurt the team. If Edinson Volquez returns to 2008 form, the Padres will have won hands down, but even if he does not, the rebuilding franchise has certainly added key assets for the future. Alonso could be a superstar and the pick-up of Grandal cannot hurt. Throw in Boxberger and the Padres have a good future looking back at them. They still need a few more parts and will not be ready to contend for a couple more years, but this deal moves them much closer to that goal.
Neither team can live solely from this trade. Other moves will need to be made before either is ready to make the post-season.
So for 2011, this is a great trade for the Reds. After that, it is Padres all the way.
But nevertheless, the Padres do not have a completely nonexistent pitching staff without their former number one. No, none of these pitchers had winning records last year (including Latos), but it's a difficult feat to accomplish when one's team only wins 71 games.
As for the Reds, Latos slots in nicely behind Johnny Cueto and gives Cincinnati a strong one-two punch for next season. Clearing out Edinson Volquez was a good move as well seeing as, since 2008, his best season included a 4-3 record and a 4.31 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP. And while he finally able to stay healthy last season, a 5-7 record with a 5.71 ERA tells me that some fans wish the disabled list would be expanded to accept players who are not injured, as well.
Who's going where?
To the Padres: Yonder Alonso, Edinson Volquez, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger
Alonso: The 24 year-old first base prospect looked good enough that some believed that the Reds may have been willing to trade 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto in order to provide Alonso with playing time. In 47 big-league games last season, he put up a .330 BA and batted in 15 runs with 5 HRs. In Louisville, he's put up .296 BAs with 12 HRs and 56 RBI in each of the past two seasons. Alonso and Jesus Guzman will have to battle it out for a starting position in 2012, which will create pressure on both to play to the best of their abilities. This will be valuable for the Padres.
Volquez: He went 17-6 in 2008 with a 3.21 ERA. If he can return to that form, he may be the biggest steal in the deal.
Grandal: Grandal jumped from High-A to AA to AAA last season, putting up combined numbers of 14 HRs and 68 RBI, supported by a .305 BA. 2 of those RBI came during his short (4 game) stay in AAA, where he batted .500. Grandal is 22 years old and is entering only his third season of Pro-Ball in 2012. With only Nick Hundley ahead of him, look for Grandal to make the majors soon, possibly as a September call-up.
Boxberger: This 23 year-old AAA reliever posted a 2.93 ERA in 25 appearances with Louisville last season. He also spent time in AA, putting up a 1.31 ERA in 30 games. He managed 11 saves over the two levels and pulled out a combined 0.97 WHIP. Boxberger is also entering his third year of professional baseball next season. While the Padres' bullpen is relatively strong, most of its players are young, so Boxberger would fit right in--and possibly quickly.
To the Reds: Mat Latos
Latos: Breaking with tradition, the Reds' sole acquisition had a stellar sophomore season in 2010--posting a 14-10 record with a 2.92 ERA with an amazing 1.08 WHIP. The numbers dipped a bit in 2011--9-14, 3.47 ERA, 1.18 WHIP--but they were some of the best on the NL West bottom-feeding Padres. Latos will be the number two after Johnny Cueto and gives the Reds a strong pitcher who may be able to push the team from third in the NL Central into second (last year's Wild Card spot), and with the extra Wild Card for next season, the Reds will certainly be a threat. But Latos will not be able to do it alone, and the Reds definitely need to make some more moves before the winter is up.
So, who wins the deal?
In the short term it looks like the Reds will reap the benefits of the trade more so than the Padres. The addition Latos and the subtraction of Volquez will make the rotation significantly better, possibly enough to contend. In the long term, however, the loss of Yonder Alonso will hurt the team. If Edinson Volquez returns to 2008 form, the Padres will have won hands down, but even if he does not, the rebuilding franchise has certainly added key assets for the future. Alonso could be a superstar and the pick-up of Grandal cannot hurt. Throw in Boxberger and the Padres have a good future looking back at them. They still need a few more parts and will not be ready to contend for a couple more years, but this deal moves them much closer to that goal.
Neither team can live solely from this trade. Other moves will need to be made before either is ready to make the post-season.
So for 2011, this is a great trade for the Reds. After that, it is Padres all the way.
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Prince Fielder: Where will he go?
Now that Albert Pujols has sold his soul to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the biggest name left on the Free Agent market is Prince Fielder. Not that he really needs an introduction, but for anyone who has needs a refresher: the former Brewers' first baseman, and son of ex-MLB first baseman Cecil, has hit 230 home runs and recorded 656 RBI to go along with a .282 batting average over the course of 6 seasons (and 39 games).
Halfway through the 2011 season, he made it quite clear that he would not be returning to Milwaukee, and it does seem to be true that the team cannot afford to bring him back--although with this banned substance mess surrounding Ryan Braun, one wonders if the Brew Crew made the correct decision when choosing who to lock up on long-term deals.
So, team-less and in search of a 7- or 8- year contract, where will the 27 year old slugger end up? Let's run down all thirty teams (noting that American League teams have a distinct advantage because of the Designated Hitter, a position where the 275 lb Fielder will probably end up by the end of his career).
Arizona: Paul Goldschmidt, Lyle Overbay, and Geoff Blum is not the best set of first basemen in the league, but Goldschmidt did show some good potential in his rookie campaign. It has been reported that the D-backs' payroll will raise in 2012, but probably not enough to sign Fielder. With a solid team for hitting, the Diamondbacks do not seem to be the most probable fit for Fielder.
Atlanta: Freddie Freeman's first full season was a promising one and the Braves are already up to $87-million in salaries. While it has been rumoured that the team's payroll may increase for next year, first base probably is not the first place that Atlanta is looking to solidify.
Baltimore: One of the worst teams in baseball over the last decade, the Orioles begin with the distinct disadvantage of having very few players wanting to play for them. With a hole on the right corner of the infield, it must be expected that the O's will (or perhaps already have) kicked the tires, here. After throwing $8-million at an aging Vladimir Guerrero last season, it would seem that money is not too much of an issue for the Orioles. That said, it is hard to afford anything when the seats are always empty.
Boston: The Red Sox have said that they do not want to go over the cap and have to pay luxury tax. Also, with Adrian Gonzalez at first, the Sox are pretty much set. Besides, we all remember how well acquiring numerous big-name players worked out for them last year...
Chicago (AL): The ChiSox are in a rebuilding phase, so adding a player who is at his most valuable right now makes very little sense. It also seems improbable that the team would bring in a replacement for captain Paul Konerko.
Chicago (NL): With Carlos Pena gone to Free Agency, the Cubs do not have a first baseman. The team has been linked to Fielder over the past few weeks and would certainly love to have him. Chicago is rebuilding and will not be ready to compete for a few more years--this may be a turn-off for Fielder. With the sixth highest payroll in the MLB, the team does not have much room to maneuver--especially if they wish to avoid the luxury tax. If the Cubs are able to unload Carlos Zambrano--perhaps to the Marlins, a rumour which has died down, but may still have some essence of truth--they will certainly have room to sign Fielder, although they may be wary of big, long contracts after the Zambrano and Soriano incidents.
Cinncinnati: Joey Votto is the incumbent and, if they are not going to trade him--which is what they are saying right now--there is no spot for Fielder here. We cannot forget Yonder Alonso, either, who some believe may one day be as good as, if not better than, Votto.
Cleveland: Here is another team without a first baseman. Carlos Santana may move from his catcher position to first, and this does seem to be a move the team is considering. If the Indians ignored Santana's knees and left him behind the plate, they would have an opening for Fielder. With relatively little money currently invested in players for next season and an announcement of an impending payroll raise from the General Manager, the Tribe could certainly afford Fielder. With the rate at which the team has progressed in the past few years, a big bat could be just what they need. There has not been much in the way of talk about the Indians and Fielder, but the Angels did seem to fly in out of nowhere and sweep up Pujols. This is something to watch out for.
Colorado: Todd Helton and Jason Giambi must be one of the olders first base tandems in the league. While the team is likely looking for a younger player to take over when these two old-timers disintegrate, Fielder may not be the answer. In spite of their terrible record in 2011, the team does wish to contend next season, but this seems to be an unrealistic goal. While there are rumours that the team's payroll will increase, Fielder may still be a bit out of range--particularly because the Rockies have numerous other holes to fill, as well. First base is probably not the team's primary point of focus.
Detroit: Miguel Cabrera is not going anywhere. Being relatively immobile in the field, and with the DH spot filled, Cabrera will be staying at first, leaving no spot for Fielder.
Houston: Carlos Lee is getting older, but is nevertheless a solid first baseman. The Astros are arguably the worst team in baseball and adding Fielder right after having traded their two best players (Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence) does not seem to make much sense. If the team is looking to get younger, Fielder is not the way in which to do it. It also seems that the Astros are looking to go the trade route, rather than through Free Agency, to build a team. A poor team which will soon be headed from a tough division to another tough division does not seem sound like Fielder's ideal team, either. That said, the Astros are moving to the AL, so the DH option will become available.
Kansas City: Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler. If the Royals have one position where they do not need to improve, it is first base.
Los Angeles (AL): Albert Pujols, 'nuff said.
Los Angeles (NL): James Loney is not a bad first baseman, but Fielder would certainly be a great improvement. Of course, the Dodgers do still have that small issue of having no money...
Milwaukee: As was previously mentioned, the Brewers cannot afford Fielder, otherwise they would most likely have already signed him. If, however, Prince cannot get the seven year deal he wants, look for the Brew Crew to sweep in and try one last time to resign their superstar.
Miami: They have already signed everyone else this offseason; why not add one more to the list. Replacing Gaby Sanchez is something the Marlins would not hesitate to do, and to do it with Fielder would make them very happy. There have been rumours connecting Prince to the Marlins--but then again, just about every everyone has been connected to the Marlins is some way. The team certainly seems to have the money to get a deal done, and if Jose Reyes is any indication, a baffling contract may be headed Fielder's way any day now.
Minnesota: If Justin Morneau is healthy, the Twins do not need a first baseman. Also, the team has the ninth highest payroll in the league and may not be able to afford the slugger anyway. The Twins, as was proved last season, have many holes--but first base is not the first one that needs to be plugged.
New York (NL): The Mets would certainly love to have a first baseman better than Ike Davis (who is not a the worst player with whom to be stuck), but if the Mets have enough money to sign Prince, they would have used it one Jose Reyes. There is no chance that Fielder ends up here.
New York (AL): With Mark Teixeira locked up through 2016, the Yanks are not looking for a first baseman. However, they do have a hole at DH. The team is already in luxury tax territory and certainly has enough money to bring Fielder into the fold. This is one to watch as the Yanks have proved over the years that they are not afraid of spending big if it means creating a winning team.
Oakland: The Athletics would probably like an upgrade on Brandon Allen, but the team is likely looking for speed, not power. Also, the A's main issue right now is in the outfield, where all three of the team's starters from last season have gone to Free Agency.
Philadelphia: Ryan Howard may be injured, but the Phillies will give him a chance to return to his old self before they go in search of a permanent replacement. Fielder has no place here.
Pittsburgh: Garrett Jones is a solid first baseman, but Fielder would be a welcome upgrade. That said, the Pirates are still developing and may not be ready to go after a player like Prince right now. There is also some uncertainty as to how much the Bucs will be able to spend next year and it seems improbable that they will be able to give much to Fielder. First base may not be the first place where the Pirates need to look, anyway.
San Diego: They could not afford to bring back Heath Bell, so they certainly do not have enough money to entice Fielder. The Padres would probably prefer a cheap temporary player than a long-term money-eater. This is a team that needs to get worse before it can get better.
San Francisco: Aubrey Huff is a good player, but he is getting a bit old. The Giants went from winning the World Series to just missing the playoffs (well, a little more than just) in one season. Carlos Beltran could not do the trick, but maybe Fielder could. With a relatively high payroll, the Giants may not be looking to add any more big contracts. They have a little room to maneuver (about $30-million), but they may wish to use it on multiple players rather than throw it all at one.
Seattle: An upgrade for Justin Smoak would not be out of the question. There have been some rumours that the Mariners may attempt to sign Fielder, but rumours may be all they are. The team may be able to increase its payroll (this is not certain, but possible), and in that case, there would be no issues from the Mariners' end. Fielder may not wish to play for a team as poor as Seattle, however. The Mariners are not out of the question, but may not be the most probable destination for Prince's services.
St. Louis: Would the Cardinals pick up all of the money they offered to Pujols and throw it at Fielder? This is not impossible, but if it was not enough for Albert, Prince will likely decline the offer as well. Also, Pujols is a much better player than Fielder, so it is improbable that he receive even close to the same offer from the Cards. Lance Berkman is an acceptable first baseman, so the Cardinals will probably look to fill other holes before returning to first base.
Tampa Bay: The Rays are currently without a first baseman, but Fielder is not really their type of player. Tampa is full of fast players who manufacture runs--Fielder is a lumbering guy who makes runs with his bat, not on the basepaths. Besides, with no protection, Fielder would constantly be walked, becoming a baserunning liability on an otherwise fast team. There is no fit here.
Texas: Moreland is far from a sure thing and the Rangers will certainly make a push for Fielder. The team may not have enough money to sign Prince, however. As much as they would certainly love to have such a valuable asset, like the Mets, if they were able to afford Fielder, they would have spent the money on the player they knew and loved--in this case CJ Wilson--instead.
Toronto: Over the past few weeks, it has become popular belief that Prince will return to the city where his father once played. There are, however, a few problems with this theory. For one, Prince and Cecil are not on the best of terms, so it is unlikely that Prince feels any attachment to Toronto at all. Even if Prince did not care about his rift with Cecil, his father did not make his name with the Blue Jays, but with the Tigers. Another issue is the fact that the Jays have made it quite clear that they will not sign players to contracts longer than five years (Prince, of course, wants seven). The rumours that the Jays are favourites for Fielder is more likely an agent's ploy to drive up prices than a fact.
Washington: Do not count out the Nats. The team is lacking at first and is clearly not afraid to spend money (as proven by the Jayson Werth signing of last year). Werth's disappointing production may have done one of two things: made the team wary of long-term, high-money contracts, or proved that Werth needs protection in the lineup. With Werth locked up for six more years, it is more probable that the team looks towards the latter. Look for the Nationals to make a move.
So where will Fielder end up? Personally, I would pick the Yankees as a favourite, but the Indians are my sleeper pick. The Nationals cannot be discounted, either. An AL team seems a more likely destination, but there have been numerous surprises in recent years.
Where do you think Prince Fielder will sign? Please comment, as we would love to hear your ideas.
Halfway through the 2011 season, he made it quite clear that he would not be returning to Milwaukee, and it does seem to be true that the team cannot afford to bring him back--although with this banned substance mess surrounding Ryan Braun, one wonders if the Brew Crew made the correct decision when choosing who to lock up on long-term deals.
So, team-less and in search of a 7- or 8- year contract, where will the 27 year old slugger end up? Let's run down all thirty teams (noting that American League teams have a distinct advantage because of the Designated Hitter, a position where the 275 lb Fielder will probably end up by the end of his career).
Arizona: Paul Goldschmidt, Lyle Overbay, and Geoff Blum is not the best set of first basemen in the league, but Goldschmidt did show some good potential in his rookie campaign. It has been reported that the D-backs' payroll will raise in 2012, but probably not enough to sign Fielder. With a solid team for hitting, the Diamondbacks do not seem to be the most probable fit for Fielder.
Atlanta: Freddie Freeman's first full season was a promising one and the Braves are already up to $87-million in salaries. While it has been rumoured that the team's payroll may increase for next year, first base probably is not the first place that Atlanta is looking to solidify.
Baltimore: One of the worst teams in baseball over the last decade, the Orioles begin with the distinct disadvantage of having very few players wanting to play for them. With a hole on the right corner of the infield, it must be expected that the O's will (or perhaps already have) kicked the tires, here. After throwing $8-million at an aging Vladimir Guerrero last season, it would seem that money is not too much of an issue for the Orioles. That said, it is hard to afford anything when the seats are always empty.
Boston: The Red Sox have said that they do not want to go over the cap and have to pay luxury tax. Also, with Adrian Gonzalez at first, the Sox are pretty much set. Besides, we all remember how well acquiring numerous big-name players worked out for them last year...
Chicago (AL): The ChiSox are in a rebuilding phase, so adding a player who is at his most valuable right now makes very little sense. It also seems improbable that the team would bring in a replacement for captain Paul Konerko.
Chicago (NL): With Carlos Pena gone to Free Agency, the Cubs do not have a first baseman. The team has been linked to Fielder over the past few weeks and would certainly love to have him. Chicago is rebuilding and will not be ready to compete for a few more years--this may be a turn-off for Fielder. With the sixth highest payroll in the MLB, the team does not have much room to maneuver--especially if they wish to avoid the luxury tax. If the Cubs are able to unload Carlos Zambrano--perhaps to the Marlins, a rumour which has died down, but may still have some essence of truth--they will certainly have room to sign Fielder, although they may be wary of big, long contracts after the Zambrano and Soriano incidents.
Cinncinnati: Joey Votto is the incumbent and, if they are not going to trade him--which is what they are saying right now--there is no spot for Fielder here. We cannot forget Yonder Alonso, either, who some believe may one day be as good as, if not better than, Votto.
Cleveland: Here is another team without a first baseman. Carlos Santana may move from his catcher position to first, and this does seem to be a move the team is considering. If the Indians ignored Santana's knees and left him behind the plate, they would have an opening for Fielder. With relatively little money currently invested in players for next season and an announcement of an impending payroll raise from the General Manager, the Tribe could certainly afford Fielder. With the rate at which the team has progressed in the past few years, a big bat could be just what they need. There has not been much in the way of talk about the Indians and Fielder, but the Angels did seem to fly in out of nowhere and sweep up Pujols. This is something to watch out for.
Colorado: Todd Helton and Jason Giambi must be one of the olders first base tandems in the league. While the team is likely looking for a younger player to take over when these two old-timers disintegrate, Fielder may not be the answer. In spite of their terrible record in 2011, the team does wish to contend next season, but this seems to be an unrealistic goal. While there are rumours that the team's payroll will increase, Fielder may still be a bit out of range--particularly because the Rockies have numerous other holes to fill, as well. First base is probably not the team's primary point of focus.
Detroit: Miguel Cabrera is not going anywhere. Being relatively immobile in the field, and with the DH spot filled, Cabrera will be staying at first, leaving no spot for Fielder.
Houston: Carlos Lee is getting older, but is nevertheless a solid first baseman. The Astros are arguably the worst team in baseball and adding Fielder right after having traded their two best players (Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence) does not seem to make much sense. If the team is looking to get younger, Fielder is not the way in which to do it. It also seems that the Astros are looking to go the trade route, rather than through Free Agency, to build a team. A poor team which will soon be headed from a tough division to another tough division does not seem sound like Fielder's ideal team, either. That said, the Astros are moving to the AL, so the DH option will become available.
Kansas City: Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler. If the Royals have one position where they do not need to improve, it is first base.
Los Angeles (AL): Albert Pujols, 'nuff said.
Los Angeles (NL): James Loney is not a bad first baseman, but Fielder would certainly be a great improvement. Of course, the Dodgers do still have that small issue of having no money...
Milwaukee: As was previously mentioned, the Brewers cannot afford Fielder, otherwise they would most likely have already signed him. If, however, Prince cannot get the seven year deal he wants, look for the Brew Crew to sweep in and try one last time to resign their superstar.
Miami: They have already signed everyone else this offseason; why not add one more to the list. Replacing Gaby Sanchez is something the Marlins would not hesitate to do, and to do it with Fielder would make them very happy. There have been rumours connecting Prince to the Marlins--but then again, just about every everyone has been connected to the Marlins is some way. The team certainly seems to have the money to get a deal done, and if Jose Reyes is any indication, a baffling contract may be headed Fielder's way any day now.
Minnesota: If Justin Morneau is healthy, the Twins do not need a first baseman. Also, the team has the ninth highest payroll in the league and may not be able to afford the slugger anyway. The Twins, as was proved last season, have many holes--but first base is not the first one that needs to be plugged.
New York (NL): The Mets would certainly love to have a first baseman better than Ike Davis (who is not a the worst player with whom to be stuck), but if the Mets have enough money to sign Prince, they would have used it one Jose Reyes. There is no chance that Fielder ends up here.
New York (AL): With Mark Teixeira locked up through 2016, the Yanks are not looking for a first baseman. However, they do have a hole at DH. The team is already in luxury tax territory and certainly has enough money to bring Fielder into the fold. This is one to watch as the Yanks have proved over the years that they are not afraid of spending big if it means creating a winning team.
Oakland: The Athletics would probably like an upgrade on Brandon Allen, but the team is likely looking for speed, not power. Also, the A's main issue right now is in the outfield, where all three of the team's starters from last season have gone to Free Agency.
Philadelphia: Ryan Howard may be injured, but the Phillies will give him a chance to return to his old self before they go in search of a permanent replacement. Fielder has no place here.
Pittsburgh: Garrett Jones is a solid first baseman, but Fielder would be a welcome upgrade. That said, the Pirates are still developing and may not be ready to go after a player like Prince right now. There is also some uncertainty as to how much the Bucs will be able to spend next year and it seems improbable that they will be able to give much to Fielder. First base may not be the first place where the Pirates need to look, anyway.
San Diego: They could not afford to bring back Heath Bell, so they certainly do not have enough money to entice Fielder. The Padres would probably prefer a cheap temporary player than a long-term money-eater. This is a team that needs to get worse before it can get better.
San Francisco: Aubrey Huff is a good player, but he is getting a bit old. The Giants went from winning the World Series to just missing the playoffs (well, a little more than just) in one season. Carlos Beltran could not do the trick, but maybe Fielder could. With a relatively high payroll, the Giants may not be looking to add any more big contracts. They have a little room to maneuver (about $30-million), but they may wish to use it on multiple players rather than throw it all at one.
Seattle: An upgrade for Justin Smoak would not be out of the question. There have been some rumours that the Mariners may attempt to sign Fielder, but rumours may be all they are. The team may be able to increase its payroll (this is not certain, but possible), and in that case, there would be no issues from the Mariners' end. Fielder may not wish to play for a team as poor as Seattle, however. The Mariners are not out of the question, but may not be the most probable destination for Prince's services.
St. Louis: Would the Cardinals pick up all of the money they offered to Pujols and throw it at Fielder? This is not impossible, but if it was not enough for Albert, Prince will likely decline the offer as well. Also, Pujols is a much better player than Fielder, so it is improbable that he receive even close to the same offer from the Cards. Lance Berkman is an acceptable first baseman, so the Cardinals will probably look to fill other holes before returning to first base.
Tampa Bay: The Rays are currently without a first baseman, but Fielder is not really their type of player. Tampa is full of fast players who manufacture runs--Fielder is a lumbering guy who makes runs with his bat, not on the basepaths. Besides, with no protection, Fielder would constantly be walked, becoming a baserunning liability on an otherwise fast team. There is no fit here.
Texas: Moreland is far from a sure thing and the Rangers will certainly make a push for Fielder. The team may not have enough money to sign Prince, however. As much as they would certainly love to have such a valuable asset, like the Mets, if they were able to afford Fielder, they would have spent the money on the player they knew and loved--in this case CJ Wilson--instead.
Toronto: Over the past few weeks, it has become popular belief that Prince will return to the city where his father once played. There are, however, a few problems with this theory. For one, Prince and Cecil are not on the best of terms, so it is unlikely that Prince feels any attachment to Toronto at all. Even if Prince did not care about his rift with Cecil, his father did not make his name with the Blue Jays, but with the Tigers. Another issue is the fact that the Jays have made it quite clear that they will not sign players to contracts longer than five years (Prince, of course, wants seven). The rumours that the Jays are favourites for Fielder is more likely an agent's ploy to drive up prices than a fact.
Washington: Do not count out the Nats. The team is lacking at first and is clearly not afraid to spend money (as proven by the Jayson Werth signing of last year). Werth's disappointing production may have done one of two things: made the team wary of long-term, high-money contracts, or proved that Werth needs protection in the lineup. With Werth locked up for six more years, it is more probable that the team looks towards the latter. Look for the Nationals to make a move.
So where will Fielder end up? Personally, I would pick the Yankees as a favourite, but the Indians are my sleeper pick. The Nationals cannot be discounted, either. An AL team seems a more likely destination, but there have been numerous surprises in recent years.
Where do you think Prince Fielder will sign? Please comment, as we would love to hear your ideas.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)