Latos for Alonso, Who Wins?

Tim Stauffer, Clayton Richard, Dustin Moseley, Cory Luebke--sound like an all-star team?  Maybe not, but all four of these Padres pitchers had ERAs below 4.00 last season (Clayton Richard's 3.88 was the highest of them).  In fact, Luebke and Moseley posted lower ERAs than--the now passé--Mat Latos (although Moseley pitched in 11 fewer games and Luebke spend the majority of the season as a reliever).


But nevertheless, the Padres do not have a completely nonexistent pitching staff without their former number one.  No, none of these pitchers had winning records last year (including Latos), but it's a difficult feat to accomplish when one's team only wins 71 games.


As for the Reds, Latos slots in nicely behind Johnny Cueto and gives Cincinnati a strong one-two punch for next season.  Clearing out Edinson Volquez was a good move as well seeing as, since 2008, his best season included a 4-3 record and a 4.31 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP.  And while he finally able to stay healthy last season, a 5-7 record with a 5.71 ERA tells me that some fans wish the disabled list would be expanded to accept players who are not injured, as well.


Who's going where?


To the Padres: Yonder Alonso, Edinson Volquez, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger


Alonso: The 24 year-old first base prospect looked good enough that some believed that the Reds may have been willing to trade 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto in order to provide Alonso with playing time.  In 47 big-league games last season, he put up a .330 BA and batted in 15 runs with 5 HRs.  In Louisville, he's put up .296 BAs with 12 HRs and 56 RBI in each of the past two seasons.  Alonso and Jesus Guzman will have to battle it out for a starting position in 2012, which will create pressure on both to play to the best of their abilities.  This will be valuable for the Padres.


Volquez: He went 17-6 in 2008 with a 3.21 ERA.  If he can return to that form, he may be the biggest steal in the deal.


Grandal: Grandal jumped from High-A to AA to AAA last season, putting up combined numbers of 14 HRs and 68 RBI, supported by a .305 BA.  2 of those RBI came during his short (4 game) stay in AAA, where he batted .500.  Grandal is 22 years old and is entering only his third season of Pro-Ball in 2012.  With only Nick Hundley ahead of him, look for Grandal to make the majors soon, possibly as a September call-up. 


Boxberger: This 23 year-old AAA reliever posted a 2.93 ERA in 25 appearances with Louisville last season.  He also spent time in AA, putting up a 1.31 ERA in 30 games.  He managed 11 saves over the two levels and pulled out a combined 0.97 WHIP.  Boxberger is also entering his third year of professional baseball next season.  While the Padres' bullpen is relatively strong, most of its players are young, so Boxberger would fit right in--and possibly quickly.


To the Reds: Mat Latos


Latos: Breaking with tradition, the Reds' sole acquisition had a stellar sophomore season in 2010--posting a 14-10 record with a 2.92 ERA with an amazing 1.08 WHIP.  The numbers dipped a bit in 2011--9-14, 3.47 ERA, 1.18 WHIP--but they were some of the best on the NL West bottom-feeding Padres.  Latos will be the number two after Johnny Cueto and gives the Reds a strong pitcher who may be able to push the team from third in the NL Central into second (last year's Wild Card spot), and with the extra Wild Card for next season, the Reds will certainly be a threat.  But Latos will not be able to do it alone, and the Reds definitely need to make some more moves before the winter is up.


So, who wins the deal?


In the short term it looks like the Reds will reap the benefits of the trade more so than the Padres.  The addition Latos and the subtraction of Volquez will make the rotation significantly better, possibly enough to contend.  In the long term, however, the loss of Yonder Alonso will hurt the team.  If Edinson Volquez returns to 2008 form, the Padres will have won hands down, but even if he does not, the rebuilding franchise has certainly added key assets for the future.  Alonso could be a superstar and the pick-up of Grandal cannot hurt.  Throw in Boxberger and the Padres have a good future looking back at them.  They still need a few more parts and will not be ready to contend for a couple more years, but this deal moves them much closer to that goal.


Neither team can live solely from this trade.  Other moves will need to be made before either is ready to make the post-season. 


So for 2011, this is a great trade for the Reds.  After that, it is Padres all the way.

Cubs Bullpen The Best? Hardly.

Recently Carlos Marmol of the Chicago Cubs said that the Cubs' bullpen is the best bullpen in the game. Some may agree with him, but I don't.

Let's talk about the usual suspects. The Yankees have a nice bullpen, and the Red Sox have three guys in there that can be closers for most teams. Now onto other teams. The Athletics looks pretty good too. The Dodgers have a solid pen. The Orioles don't look too bad either. Oh, and don't forget the Padres, Phillies and Rangers.

To save time, let's just compare 3 people in each bullpen.

Athletics: Bailey is a solid closer. Fuentes may be shaky in the past few years, but he's is still a good reliever. Balfour rounds out the trio, and he's a solid reliever too.

Dodgers: Broxton got banged around a bit the past summer, but he has a good track record, and he's still pretty young. Kuo and Guerrier will probably do well as setup-men, and they step in and close when Broxton falters.

Orioles: Gregg is certainly not fantastic, but he's consistently tolerable. Gonzalez and Uehara are fine pitchers who will help shorten the game.

Padres: Adams and Gregerson are fine setup men and they are a solid bridge to Bell, one of the best closers in the game today.

Phillies: Lidge is ok, and Contreras and Madson performs.

Rangers: I'll go with the depth chart for now. Feliz is absolutely reliable as the closer,and Rhodes and Oliver are fine lefties who continue to defy age.

Red Sox: Papelbon, Bard and Jenks. Three legit closers. Three reliable arms (at times).

Yankees: If Rivera wasn't enough, Soriano will close the gap. Robertson will help, and not hurt the team.

Cubs: Marmol and Wood are high K and high BB pitchers. Marshall the lefty is a nice complementary piece to the other two, with good strikeout rate but a lower BB rate.

I'd say that the Cubs aren't even in the top 3.

1) Red Sox

2) Padres

3) Yankees

The Sox, of course, with their three closers, wins the top spot.

The Padres deserves the second spot, with three solid and reliable arms. However, they can't match the awesomeness of three closers.

The Yankees, with Robertson, a good but not great reliever, gets the third place. If they had a better player to join Rivera and Soriano, they'd have the best bullpen.